Estimating Probabilities of Extreme Rainfalls
Estimating Probabilities of Extreme Rainfalls
复制标题
估计极端降雨的概率
DOI：
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发表时间：
1989
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
K. Potter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Fontaine;K. Potter
对于各种设计目的，越来越多的人对估计罕见洪水的概率感兴趣，其量级高达可能的最大洪水。一种估算方法，我们称之为“随机风暴换位”，是风暴换位概念的概括，这是估算可能最大降水量的基础。我们探讨了随机风暴换位的概念，并证明了这一概念的两种替代配方在美国中西部的集水区的应用。从这些应用中可以清楚地看出，在这一概念能够被常规应用之前，必须加强其理论基础，并必须探索几个潜在的巨大不确定性来源。
For a variety of design purposes there is increasing interest in estimating probabilities of rare floods, with magnitudes up to the probable maximum flood. One estimation approach, which we term “stochastic storm transposition,” is a generalization of the concept of storm transposition, which is the basis for estimating probable maximum precipitation. We explore the concept of stochastic storm transposition, and demonstrate the application of two alternative formulations of this concept to a catchment in the midwestern United States. It is clear from these applications that before the concept can be applied routinely its theoretical basis must be strengthened and several potentially large sources of uncertainty must be explored.