LONGITUDINAL PREDICTION OF ADULT-BLOOD PRESSURE FROM JUVENILE BLOOD-PRESSURE LEVELS
LONGITUDINAL PREDICTION OF ADULT-BLOOD PRESSURE FROM JUVENILE BLOOD-PRESSURE LEVELS
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DOI：
10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a116543
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发表时间：
1992-09-15
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
SYME, SL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
NELSON, MJ;RAGLAND, DR;SYME, SL
1928年至今，在旧金山湾区进行的一项基于社区的纵向研究中，研究了青少年(3-18岁)和随后的成年人(30-50岁)测量的血压之间的联系。最初的550人样本到50岁时减少了61%，队列中只剩下21.1人。血压在18岁之前每年测量一次，此后每十年测量一次，这提供了一个独特的机会，可以在长达50年的时间内将儿童和成人的血压联系起来。从6岁开始测量的青少年血压是30岁时血压的积极预测因素。在50岁时测量的血压可以通过在学龄期早期和青春期早期测量的青少年血压来预测。控制吸烟和父母心血管疾病史可以部分解释青少年-成人血压的相关性，但不能通过控制青少年身高或体重来解释。在来自蓝领家庭的孩子中，这一比例更高。报告的相关性可能代表了对这种关联的真实强度的低估，因为在血压较高的受试者中，跟踪调查的损失更大，而且成年后服用降压药的效果更大。
The link between blood pressure measured at juvenile ages (3-18 years) and subsequent adult ages (30 and 50 years) was investigated in a community-based longitudinal study conducted in the San Francisco Bay Area from 1928 to the present. The original sample of 550 persons decreased 61 percent by age 50 years, leaving only 21 1 persons in the cohort. Blood pressure was measured annually up to age 18 years and each decade thereafter, providing a unique opportunity to link childhood and adult blood pressures over periods of up to 50 years. Juvenile blood pressure measured from age 6 years onward was a positive predictor of blood pressure at age 30 years. Blood pressure measured at age 50 years was predicted best by juvenile pressures measured at early school age and early puberty. The juvenile-adult blood pressure association was partly explained by controlling for smoking and parental history of cardiovascular disease, but was not explained by controlling for juvenile height or body mass. It was stronger in children from blue collar families. The reported correlations probably represent an underestimation of the true strength of the association because of a greater loss to follow-up among subjects with higher blood pressure and the effects of antihypertensive medication in adulthood.