Wetland loss impact on long term flood risks in a closed watershed
Wetland loss impact on long term flood risks in a closed watershed
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envsci.2018.12.032
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发表时间：
2019-04-01
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Zhang, Xiaodong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gulbin, Sergey;Kirilenko, Andrei P.;Zhang, Xiaodong
防洪是湿地提供的最重要的生态系统服务之一。湿地的大规模丧失，加上气候变化导致降水量增加，增加了洪水风险，封闭流域特别容易遭受洪水风险。在魔鬼湖（北达科他州，美国）流域，自20世纪90年代初以来的长期潮湿状况已导致水位上升近10米，造成超过10亿美元的损失。虽然研究表明，气候变化是这次洪水的主要驱动力，但目前还不清楚上游流域湿地的历史转换有多大贡献。我们开发了一个土壤和水资源评估工具（SWAT）模型的魔鬼湖流域和模拟各种情况下，代表现在和可能的过去和未来的湿地面积。我们估计了这些湿地情景下的历史和CMIP-5未来气候下洪水风险的变化。我们发现，虽然目前湿地恢复并没有显着改变洪水风险，在气候变化下，它提供了一个很好的补充措施，减少目前的洪水管理策略的负面影响。
Flood control is one of the most important ecosystem services provided by wetlands. Large-scale loss of wetlands, combined with more intensive precipitation under changing climate, increases flood risks, to which closed watersheds are particularly susceptible. In the Devils Lake (North Dakota, USA) watershed, a prolonged wet condition since early 1990s has caused a nearly 10 m rise in water level, resulting in over $1 billion losses. While studies have shown the changing climate is the major driver of this flooding, it is still unclear how much contribution could be due to the historical conversion of wetlands in the upper basin. We developed a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for the Devils Lake watershed and simulated various scenarios representing present and possible past and future wetland area. We estimated the changes in flood risks under the historical and CMIP-5 future climates with these wetland scenarios. We found that while currently wetland restoration does not significantly change flood risks, under the modified climate it presents a good complementary measure reducing the negative impacts of current flood management strategies.