Toward Disaster-Resilient Cities: Characterizing Resilience of Infrastructure Systems with Expert Judgments
Toward Disaster-Resilient Cities: Characterizing Resilience of Infrastructure Systems with Expert Judgments
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DOI：
10.1111/risa.12133
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发表时间：
2014-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Longstaff, Holly
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chang, Stephanie E.;McDaniels, Timothy;Longstaff, Holly
弹性基础设施系统对于城市抵御自然和人为灾害并迅速恢复至关重要，但电力，交通和其他基础设施非常脆弱且相互依赖。迫切需要在社区和区域一级采用新的方法来确定成套基础设施系统的复原力。本文开发了一个实用的方法，分析师来描述一个社区的基础设施的脆弱性和灾害恢复能力。它解决了不完整的激励措施，部分信息和学习机会很少的关键挑战。该方法被证明为地铁温哥华，加拿大，在地震和洪水风险的背景下。方法上的做法是切实可行的，侧重于对基础设施服务的潜在干扰。在精神上，它类似于多个专家的概率启发;然而，它随着时间的推移而消除了中断和恢复，而不是在给定时间点上系统功能的不确定性。它编制关于区域基础设施风险的信息，并让基础设施组织参与这一进程。参与者之间的信息共享、迭代和学习为基础设施系统稳健性和恢复的更知情估计提供了基础，这些估计包括极端事件后相互依赖的故障的可能性。研究结果表明，跨部门沟通对于形成对灾害中区域基础设施中断的共同理解至关重要。对于温哥华，具体的结果表明，在假设的7.3级地震中，几乎所有的基础设施都将在地震发生后立即遭受严重的服务中断，许多基础设施在两周后遭受中度中断。电力、陆运和电信被确定为核心基础设施部门。
Resilient infrastructure systems are essential for cities to withstand and rapidly recover from natural and human-induced disasters, yet electric power, transportation, and other infrastructures are highly vulnerable and interdependent. New approaches for characterizing the resilience of sets of infrastructure systems are urgently needed, at community and regional scales. This article develops a practical approach for analysts to characterize a community's infrastructure vulnerability and resilience in disasters. It addresses key challenges of incomplete incentives, partial information, and few opportunities for learning. The approach is demonstrated for Metro Vancouver, Canada, in the context of earthquake and flood risk. The methodological approach is practical and focuses on potential disruptions to infrastructure services. In spirit, it resembles probability elicitation with multiple experts; however, it elicits disruption and recovery over time, rather than uncertainties regarding system function at a given point in time. It develops information on regional infrastructure risk and engages infrastructure organizations in the process. Information sharing, iteration, and learning among the participants provide the basis for more informed estimates of infrastructure system robustness and recovery that incorporate the potential for interdependent failures after an extreme event. Results demonstrate the vital importance of cross-sectoral communication to develop shared understanding of regional infrastructure disruption in disasters. For Vancouver, specific results indicate that in a hypothetical M7.3 earthquake, virtually all infrastructures would suffer severe disruption of service in the immediate aftermath, with many experiencing moderate disruption two weeks afterward. Electric power, land transportation, and telecommunications are identified as core infrastructure sectors.