Usefulness of historical information for flood frequency analyses: Developments based on a case study
Usefulness of historical information for flood frequency analyses: Developments based on a case study
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历史信息对洪水频率分析的有用性：基于案例研究的进展
DOI：
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发表时间：
2011
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通讯作者：
H. Andrieu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
O. Payrastre;E. Gaume;H. Andrieu
本文说明了如何历史上的洪水信息可以检索到的先验不利的情况下，人口稀少的小流域，以及如何利用这些信息可以提高洪水流量分位数的估计。它是基于位于法国南部的四个小测量河流的分析。利用各种档案来源，对过去100至200年的历史时期的洪水流量进行了估计。相应的历史流量系列，然后与现有的系统测量系列相结合，以评估峰值流量分位数。所选的贝叶斯蒙特卡罗马尔可夫链统计推断方法为估计的分位数提供了可信区间，其宽度反映了用于推断的数据集的信息内容。在推理过程中使用的历史数据导致显着减少这些可信区间，即使在历史库存的内容的限制。本文的第二部分进行了敏感性分析，以评估在多大程度上这些积极的结论，洪水频率分析的历史数据的附加值可以外推到其他案例研究。记录的历史洪水的数量（感知阈值）和历史洪峰流量的知识水平的影响进行了研究。结果是一致的，与以前的作品在同一问题上，并解释了为什么这些作品导致明显矛盾的结论，可能有用的历史数据在洪水频率研究。
This paper illustrates how historical information on floods can be retrieved in the a priori unfavourable case of small and sparsely populated catchments, and how this information can improve the estimation of flood discharge quantiles. It is based on the analysis of four small gauged rivers located in the south of France. Using various sources of archives, the flood discharges were estimated for past historical periods ranging from 100 to 200 years. The corresponding historical discharge series were then used in combination with the available systematic measurement series to evaluate peak discharge quantiles. The selected Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain statistical inference approach provides credibility intervals for the estimated quantiles, the width of which reflects the information content of the data set used for the inference. The use of the historical data in the inference procedure leads to significant reductions of these credibility intervals, even if limitations in the content of historical inventories are introduced. A sensitivity analysis is conducted in the second part of the paper to evaluate to what extent these positive conclusions on the added value of historical data for flood frequency analysis can be extrapolated to other case studies. The influence of the number of historical floods documented (perception threshold) and of the level of knowledge of historical flood peak discharges is studied. The results are consistent with the previous works on the same issue and explain why these works led to apparently contradictory conclusions concerning the possible usefulness of historical data in flood frequency studies.