Protected areas in Borneo may fail to conserve tropical forest biodiversity under climate change
Protected areas in Borneo may fail to conserve tropical forest biodiversity under climate change
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.biocon.2015.02.018
复制
发表时间：
2015-04
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Sarah A. Scriven;J. Hodgson;C. McClean;J. Hill
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sarah A. Scriven;J. Hodgson;C. McClean;J. Hill
保护区(PA)是保护雨林物种的关键，但许多保护区在农业景观中正变得越来越孤立，这可能会对它们所包含的森林生物群产生有害后果。我们通过检查PA沿海拔梯度的连通性来检查PA网络对气候变化的脆弱性。我们使用婆罗洲的PA网络作为模式系统，考察了未来气候条件空间分布的变化。很大一部分保护区未来将不包含类似的气候(基于2061年至2080年的温度预测)，如果要跟踪气候变化，可能需要生物迁移到海拔较高的较凉爽的保护区。对于最高变暖情景(RCP8.5)，很少有(11-12.5%；27-30/240)PA具有足够的地形差异，足以使类似的气候条件(今天相当于或更凉爽)留在原地。对于其余的87.5%-(210-213/240)的保护区，通常位于低海拔地区，只有在海拔较高的保护区才有类似的气候。然而，婆罗洲一半以上的保护区(60%-82%)过于孤立，不适合较差的分散者(每代1公里)到达较凉爽的保护区，因为缺乏连接的森林栖息地。即使在最低变暖情景(RCP2.6)下，类似的气候条件也将从61%(146/240)的保护区中消失，其中很大一部分过于孤立，不利于较差的分散者达到较凉爽的保护区。我们的结果表明，低海拔的保护区特别容易受到气候变化的影响，管理改善沿着海拔梯度的保护区的联系应该是保护的优先事项。
Protected areas (PAs) are key for conserving rainforest species, but many PAs are becoming increasingly isolated within agricultural landscapes, which may have detrimental consequences for the forest biota they contain. We examined the vulnerability of PA networks to climate change by examining connectivity of PAs along elevation gradients. We used the PA network on Borneo as a model system, and examined changes in the spatial distribution of climate conditions in future. A large proportion of PAs will not contain analogous climates in future (based on temperature projections for 2061–2080), potentially requiring organisms to move to cooler PAs at higher elevation, if they are to track climate changes. For the highest warming scenario (RCP8.5), few (11–12.5%; 27–30/240) PAs were sufficiently topographically diverse for analogous climate conditions (present-day equivalent or cooler) to remain in situ. For the remaining 87.5–89% (210–213/240) of PAs, which were often situated at low elevation, analogous climate will only be available in higher elevation PAs. However, over half (60–82%) of all PAs on Borneo are too isolated for poor dispersers (<1 km per generation) to reach cooler PAs, because there is a lack of connecting forest habitat. Even under the lowest warming scenario (RCP2.6), analogous climate conditions will disappear from 61% (146/240) of PAs, and a large proportion of these are too isolated for poor dispersers to reach cooler PAs. Our results suggest that low elevation PAs are particularly vulnerable to climate change, and management to improve linkage of PAs along elevation gradients should be a conservation priority.