Understanding the Economic Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Policies on Shipping: What is the State of the Art of Current Modeling Approaches?
Understanding the Economic Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Policies on Shipping: What is the State of the Art of Current Modeling Approaches?
复制标题
了解温室气体减排政策对航运的经济影响：当前建模方法的最新技术水平如何？
DOI：
10.1596/1813-9450-8695
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Dominik Englert
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. A. Halim;T. Smith;Dominik Englert
国际海事组织关于减少船舶温室气体排放的初步战略规定，国际航运部门在通过该战略所列缓解措施之前，应评估对各国的影响。这项评估应作为紧急事项进行，并应酌情评估和处理不成比例的负面影响。本文旨在通过使用基于模型的分析，回顾关于温室气体减排措施对国家的经济影响的最新研究，为这一讨论做出贡献。具体而言，该文件：(1)确定了经济影响的四个领域及其相互关系；(2)汇编了关于这些影响估计程度的最新调查结果；(3)提出了相关的建模方法以及在影响评估中选择和应用这些方法的最佳做法。论文的结论是，引入温室气体减排措施，如对船用燃料征收10至50美元/吨二氧化碳的碳价格，可能会使海运成本增加0.4%至16%。然而，这只会略微增加商品的进口价格(增幅不到1%)。就运输选择而言，温室气体减排措施导致的海运成本增加可能只会略微减少海运在全球的份额，降幅为0.16%。此外，对所有运输方式征收全球碳税可能会刺激人们从所有其他运输方式转向海运。预计碳价格在10至90美元/吨二氧化碳对国民经济的影响不大(占国内生产总值的-0.002%至-1%)。
The International Maritime Organization's initial strategy on reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from ships stipulates that the international shipping sector should assess the impacts on states prior to adoption of the mitigation measures included in the strategy. This assessment should be undertaken as a matter of urgency, and disproportionately negative impacts should be assessed and addressed as appropriate. This paper aims to contribute to this discussion by reviewing the state-of-the-art research on the economic impacts of greenhouse gas mitigation measures on states, using model-based analysis. Specifically, the paper: (i) identifies four areas of economic impacts and their relationships, (ii) compiles the latest findings on the estimated magnitudes of these impacts, and (iii) presents relevant modeling approaches along with best practices for selecting and applying these approaches in impact assessments. The paper concludes that introducing greenhouse gas mitigation measures, such as carbon prices applied to bunker fuels in the range of 10 to 50 USD/ton of carbon dioxide, might increase maritime transport costs by 0.4 percent to 16 percent. However, this would only marginally increase the import prices of goods (by less than 1 percent). For transport choices, the increased cost of maritime transport induced by greenhouse gas mitigation measures might only slightly reduce the share of maritime transport, by 0.16 percent globally. Furthermore, a global carbon tax applied to all transport modes might stimulate a shift toward maritime transport from all other modes. The impacts of a carbon price in the range of 10 to 90 USD/ton of carbon dioxide on national economies are expected to be modest (-0.002 percent to -1 percent of GDP).
国际交通基础设施发展影响评估模型：聚焦中亚贸易和货运
影响因子：
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作者：
Tanabe;S.;Shibasaki;R.;Kato;H.
通讯作者：
H.