Stochastic Watershed Water Quality Simulation for TMDL Development – A Case Study in the Newport Bay Watershed 1
Stochastic Watershed Water Quality Simulation for TMDL Development – A Case Study in the Newport Bay Watershed 1
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00232.x
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发表时间：
2008-12
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Yi Zheng;A. Keller
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yi Zheng;A. Keller
摘要：在大多数最大日负荷 (TMDL) 计算中，通常没有系统地考虑数据、模型结构和其他因素的不确定性。我们之前的研究开发了管理目标不确定性约束分析（MOCAU）方法，作为一种基于综合案例的专门针对流域水质模型的不确定性分析技术。在本研究中，我们应用 MOCAU 分析了纽波特湾流域（南加州）的二嗪农负荷。研究目标包括 (1) 使用 MOCAU 作为技术，展示对 TMDL 开发进行随机模拟和不确定性分析的价值；(2) 评估现有的二嗪农 TMDL，并在考虑不确定性的情况下，为开发科学合理的 TMDL 提供见解。流域分析风险管理框架模型用作复杂流域模型的示例。该研究揭示了进行随机流域水质模拟对于TMDL开发的重要性和可行性。管理目标在系统不确定性评估中的关键作用得到了充分证明。本研究结果对于TMDL计算、模型结构改进和抽样策略设计具有直观意义。
Abstract: Systematic consideration of uncertainty in data, model structure, and other factors is generally unaddressed in most Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) calculations. Our previous studies developed the Management Objectives Constrained Analysis of Uncertainty (MOCAU) approach as an uncertainty analysis technique specifically for watershed water quality models, based on a synthetic case. In this study, we applied MOCAU to analyze diazinon loading in the Newport Bay watershed (Southern California). The study objectives included (1) demonstrating the value of performing stochastic simulation and uncertainty analysis for TMDL development, using MOCAU as the technique and (2) evaluating the existing diazinon TMDL and generating insights for the development of scientifically sound TMDLs, considering uncertainty. The Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework model was used as an example of a complex watershed model. The study revealed the importance and feasibility of conducting stochastic watershed water quality simulation for TMDL development. The critical role of management objectives in a systematic uncertainty assessment was well demonstrated. The results of this study are intuitive to TMDL calculation, model structure improvement and sampling strategy design.