Potential climate change effects on the habitat of antarctic krill in the weddell quadrant of the southern ocean.
Potential climate change effects on the habitat of antarctic krill in the weddell quadrant of the southern ocean.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0072246
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Atkinson A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hill SL;Phillips T;Atkinson A
南极磷虾是一种冷水鱼种，是越来越重要的渔业资源，也是南大洋许多鱼类、鸟类和哺乳动物的主要猎物。许多这些捕食者的渔业和夏季觅食地点集中在西经0°至90°之间。该象限的部分地区最近经历了每十年高达0.2°C的局地海面变暖，预估表明，到21世纪后期将进一步发生0.27°C至1.08°C的大范围变暖。我们利用一个将生长与温度和叶绿素浓度联系起来的统计模型，评估了这种预计变暖对南极磷虾栖息地的潜在影响。结果将象限划分为两个区域：南极环极流周围的区域，其中栖息地质量特别容易受到变暖的影响，而南部地区则相对不敏感。我们的分析表明，气候变暖的直接影响可能会使生长栖息地的面积减少多达20%。在捕食者范围内的生长栖息地减少了55%，如南极海狗，从南乔治亚岛的繁殖地觅食，栖息地支持南极磷虾生物量生产的能力在这个范围内可能减少了68%。敏感性分析表明，夏季叶绿素浓度变化50%的影响可能比变暖的直接影响更为显著。初级生产的减少可能导致生境进一步退化，但是，即使叶绿素增加50%，预估的变暖仍将导致捕食者可接近的生境的一些退化。虽然这些预测存在相当大的不确定性，但它们表明，未来的气候变化可能对南极磷虾生长栖息地产生重大负面影响，从而对南大洋生物多样性和生态系统服务产生负面影响。
Antarctic krill is a cold water species, an increasingly important fishery resource and a major prey item for many fish, birds and mammals in the Southern Ocean. The fishery and the summer foraging sites of many of these predators are concentrated between 0° and 90°W. Parts of this quadrant have experienced recent localised sea surface warming of up to 0.2°C per decade, and projections suggest that further widespread warming of 0.27° to 1.08°C will occur by the late 21st century. We assessed the potential influence of this projected warming on Antarctic krill habitat with a statistical model that links growth to temperature and chlorophyll concentration. The results divide the quadrant into two zones: a band around the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in which habitat quality is particularly vulnerable to warming, and a southern area which is relatively insensitive. Our analysis suggests that the direct effects of warming could reduce the area of growth habitat by up to 20%. The reduction in growth habitat within the range of predators, such as Antarctic fur seals, that forage from breeding sites on South Georgia could be up to 55%, and the habitat’s ability to support Antarctic krill biomass production within this range could be reduced by up to 68%. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the effects of a 50% change in summer chlorophyll concentration could be more significant than the direct effects of warming. A reduction in primary production could lead to further habitat degradation but, even if chlorophyll increased by 50%, projected warming would still cause some degradation of the habitat accessible to predators. While there is considerable uncertainty in these projections, they suggest that future climate change could have a significant negative effect on Antarctic krill growth habitat and, consequently, on Southern Ocean biodiversity and ecosystem services.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.dsr2.2011.08.011
发表时间：
2012-01-01
影响因子：
3
作者：
Mackey, A. P.;Atkinson, A.;Murphy, E. J.
通讯作者：
Murphy, E. J.
DOI：
10.1007/bf00977785
发表时间：
1980-01-01
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF COMPUTER & INFORMATION SCIENCES
影响因子：
--
作者：
LEE, DT;SCHACHTER, BJ
通讯作者：
SCHACHTER, BJ
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Atkinson, A;Siegel, V;Rothery, P
通讯作者：
Rothery, P
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Gregg, WW;Conkright, ME;Casey, NW
通讯作者：
Casey, NW
DOI：
10.1016/j.dsr2.2011.09.001
发表时间：
2012-01-01
影响因子：
3
作者：
Hill, Simeon L.;Keeble, Kathryn;Murphy, Eugene J.
通讯作者：
Murphy, Eugene J.