Sensitivities of a Squall Line over Central Europe in a Convective-Scale Ensemble
Sensitivities of a Squall Line over Central Europe in a Convective-Scale Ensemble
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DOI：
10.1175/mwr-d-12-00013.1
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发表时间：
2013-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
K. Hanley;D. Kirshbaum;N. Roberts;G. Leoncini
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Hanley;D. Kirshbaum;N. Roberts;G. Leoncini
用对流尺度集合模拟方法研究了对流和地磁诱发降水研究(COPS)中一次中欧对流事件的机制和敏感性。在这一事件中，在孚日山脉(法国)上游衰弱的中尺度对流系统(MCS)之前形成了一条“主要”廓线，在莱茵河流域减弱，然后在黑森林山脉(德国)再生为一条“次要”廓线。所有的集合成员都捕捉到了咆哮线的演变，但大多数成员在COPS地区上空50-150公里的对流开始和位置误差方面受到了延迟。二次启动中的这些错误与一次启动中的错误有关。详细的分析表明，所有成员都有相似的主要启动机制：在MCS前的中层锋面环流上升支上，对流是在中尺度水汽异常内启动的。
AbstractConvective-scale ensemble simulations with perturbed initial and lateral boundary conditions are performed to investigate the mechanisms and sensitivities of a central European convection event from the Convective and Orographically Induced Precipitation Study (COPS). In this event, a “primary” squall line developed ahead of a decaying mesoscale convective system (MCS) upstream of the Vosges Mountains (France), weakened over the Rhine valley, then regenerated as a “secondary” squall line over the Black Forest Mountains (Germany). All ensemble members captured the squall-line evolution, but most suffered from a delay in the onset of convection and positional errors of 50–150 km over the COPS region. These errors in the secondary initiation were linked to errors in the primary initiation. Detailed analysis revealed a similar primary initiation mechanism in all members: in the ascending branch of a midlevel frontal circulation ahead of the MCS, convection initiated within a mesoscale moisture anomaly...