Assessing the impact of travel restrictions on international spread of the 2014 West African Ebola epidemic
Assessing the impact of travel restrictions on international spread of the 2014 West African Ebola epidemic
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DOI：
10.2807/1560-7917.es2014.19.42.20936
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发表时间：
2014-10-23
期刊：
影响因子：
19
通讯作者：
Vespignani, A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Poletto;Gomes, M. F.;Vespignani, A.
埃博拉疫情在西非迅速蔓延，导致一些国家和航空公司发布了前往疫区的旅行禁令。考虑到截至2014年8月31日的数据，我们通过对疫情国际传播的详细数值模拟来评估由此产生的交通减少的影响。交通量的减少仅将疫情蔓延到新国家的风险推迟了几周。
The quick spread of an Ebola outbreak in West Africa has led a number of countries and airline companies to issue travel bans to the affected areas. Considering data up to 31 Aug 2014, we assess the impact of the resulting traffic reductions with detailed numerical simulations of the international spread of the epidemic. Traffic reductions are shown to delay by only a few weeks the risk that the outbreak extends to new countries.