Arctic open-water periods are projected to lengthen dramatically by 2100
Arctic open-water periods are projected to lengthen dramatically by 2100
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DOI：
10.1038/s43247-021-00183-x
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发表时间：
2021-06-03
影响因子：
7.9
通讯作者：
Jahn, Alexandra
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Crawford, Alex;Stroeve, Julienne;Jahn, Alexandra
9月整个北极海冰范围的缩小经常被认为是现代气候变化的一个指标;然而，季节性海冰后退/前进的时间和无冰期的长度往往与在区域和地方尺度上工作的利益攸关方更相关。在这里，我们强调在多个变暖阈值的区域开放水域期间的变化。我们发现，在耦合模型相互比较项目（CMIP 6）的最新一代模型中，开放水域的时间平均延长了63天，全球变暖2摄氏度以上的1850-1900年的平均水平，并在几个北极海域超过90天。几乎整个北极地区，包括跨极地航线，每年至少有3个月的开放水域变暖3.5摄氏度，至少有6个月变暖5摄氏度。与卫星数据相比，模型偏差表明，即使是如此戏剧性的预测也可能是保守的。根据对最新（CMIP 6）气候模式模拟的分析，在几个北冰洋盆地，在全球变暖2摄氏度的情况下，没有海冰覆盖的开放水域将延长90多天。
The shrinking of Arctic-wide September sea ice extent is often cited as an indicator of modern climate change; however, the timing of seasonal sea ice retreat/advance and the length of the open-water period are often more relevant to stakeholders working at regional and local scales. Here we highlight changes in regional open-water periods at multiple warming thresholds. We show that, in the latest generation of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the open-water period lengthens by 63 days on average with 2 degrees C of global warming above the 1850-1900 average, and by over 90 days in several Arctic seas. Nearly the entire Arctic, including the Transpolar Sea Route, has at least 3 months of open water per year with 3.5 degrees C warming, and at least 6 months with 5 degrees C warming. Model bias compared to satellite data suggests that even such dramatic projections may be conservative. In several of the Arctic ocean basins, the period of open water without sea-ice cover will lengthen by more than 90 days under 2 C-o of global warming, suggest analyses of the latest (CMIP6) climate model simulations.