The temporal evolution of induced seismicity sequences generated by low-pressure, long-term fluid injection
The temporal evolution of induced seismicity sequences generated by low-pressure, long-term fluid injection
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s10950-023-10141-z
复制
发表时间：
2023-03
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
Thomas J. Watkins;J. Verdon;G. Rodríguez-Pradilla
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Thomas J. Watkins;J. Verdon;G. Rodríguez-Pradilla
交通灯方案(TLS)通常用于减轻地下流体注入引起的地震活动。Verdon和Bommer(J Seismol25：301-326)研究了支撑语言学习系统成功运作的隐含假设的有效性。特别是，他们检查了在水力压裂(HF)诱发的地震活动序列中发生震级跳跃(事件震级从之前的任何地震活动突然增加)和后续事件(注入结束后地震活动水平继续增加)的程度。其他技术，如碳捕获和储存(CCS)、废水处理(WWD)和天然气储存(NGS)，涉及在低压下逐步但长期地注入大量流体。因此，我们可能会看到，与HF相比，低压长期注入(LPLT)引起的地震活动的震级在空间和时间上的演变不同。在这项研究中，我们汇编了LPLT注射诱发地震活动的案例，以考察它们的时间演化。我们检查了注入开始后地震活动的震级跳跃、拖尾事件和开始时间的发生情况。我们发现，很少有LPLT注入产生拖尾事件，并且幅度跳跃通常低于1.5个幅度单位。事件发生的时间尺度(相对于注射开始)是高度可变的，可能反映了特定部位的情况。对于长期注入，我们观察到一种趋势，即最大的事件发生在每个序列的早期部分，然后随着注入的继续，幅度趋于稳定，甚至降低。最后，我们评估了下一个破纪录事件(NRBE)模型作为一种预测诱发事件震级的方法的性能，发现该方法在大多数情况下都表现得相当好，但在某些情况下，最大的事件显著超过了该模型。
Traffic light schemes (TLSs) are commonly used to mitigate induced seismicity caused by subsurface fluid injection. Verdon and Bommer (J Seismol 25:301–326, ) investigated the validity of the implicit assumptions that underpin the successful functioning of TLSs. In particular, they examined the extent to which magnitude jumps (sudden increases in event magnitudes from any preceding seismicity) and trailing events (continued increases in seismicity levels after the end of injection) took place in hydraulic fracturing (HF) induced seismicity sequences. Other technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS), wastewater disposal (WWD) and natural gas storage (NGS) involve the gradual but long-term injection of large fluid volumes at low pressure. Hence, we might expect to see a different spatial and temporal evolution of magnitudes for seismicity induced by low-pressure, long-term (LPLT) injections compared to HF. In this study, we compile cases of LPLT injection-induced seismicity in order to examine their temporal evolution. We examine the occurrence of magnitude jumps, trailing events and onset times for seismicity after the initiation of injection. We find that few LPLT injections have produced trailing events, and that magnitude jumps are typically below 1.5 magnitude units. The timescale of event occurrence (relative to the onset of injection) is highly variable, likely reflecting site-specific conditions. For long-term injection, we observe a trend for the largest events to occur within the earlier part of each sequence, with magnitudes then stabilising, or even reducing, as injection continues. Finally, we evaluate the performance of the next record breaking event (NRBE) model as a method for forecasting induced event magnitudes, finding that this method performs reasonably well in most cases, but that in some cases the largest event significantly exceeds this model.