Model-Based Evaluation of Strategies to Control Brucellosis in China.
Model-Based Evaluation of Strategies to Control Brucellosis in China.
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基于模型的中国布鲁氏菌病控制策略评估
DOI：
10.3390/ijerph14030295
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发表时间：
2017-03-12
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Jin Z
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Li MT;Sun GQ;Zhang WY;Jin Z
布鲁氏菌病是世界范围内最常见的人畜共患病，对畜牧业造成巨大的威胁，并可能造成巨大的经济损失。布鲁氏菌病已成为我国的主要公共卫生问题，近年来人间布鲁氏菌病病例数急剧增加。为了评价控制布鲁氏菌病在中国传播的不同干预策略，提出了一种新的具有一般间接传播发病率的数学模型。通过比较三种模型的结果，使用全国人类疾病数据和11个高病例数的省份，最好的拟合模型与标准发病率来调查未来爆发的可能性。估计的基本再生产数字是高度异质性，各省之间差异很大。发病率上升明显的省份，当地基本生殖数远大于全国平均数，表明环境-个体传播比个体-个体传播更为普遍。我们的结论是，布鲁氏菌病可以通过提高动物接种率，环境消毒频率，或受感染动物的清除率来控制。我们的研究结果表明，动物疫苗接种，环境消毒和消除受感染的动物相结合，将是必要的，以确保成本效益控制布鲁氏菌病。
Brucellosis, the most common zoonotic disease worldwide, represents a great threat to animal husbandry with the potential to cause enormous economic losses. Brucellosis has become a major public health problem in China, and the number of human brucellosis cases has increased dramatically in recent years. In order to evaluate different intervention strategies to curb brucellosis transmission in China, a novel mathematical model with a general indirect transmission incidence rate was presented. By comparing the results of three models using national human disease data and 11 provinces with high case numbers, the best fitted model with standard incidence was used to investigate the potential for future outbreaks. Estimated basic reproduction numbers were highly heterogeneous, varying widely among provinces. The local basic reproduction numbers of provinces with an obvious increase in incidence were much larger than the average for the country as a whole, suggesting that environment-to-individual transmission was more common than individual-to-individual transmission. We concluded that brucellosis can be controlled through increasing animal vaccination rates, environment disinfection frequency, or elimination rates of infected animals. Our finding suggests that a combination of animal vaccination, environment disinfection, and elimination of infected animals will be necessary to ensure cost-effective control for brucellosis.