Boosted regression tree model-based assessment of the impacts of meteorological drivers of hand, foot and mouth disease in Guangdong, China
Boosted regression tree model-based assessment of the impacts of meteorological drivers of hand, foot and mouth disease in Guangdong, China
复制标题
基于增强回归树模型评估中国广东手足口病气象驱动因素的影响
DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.02.023
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发表时间：
2016-05-15
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Hao, Yuantao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhang, Wangjian;Du, Zhicheng;Hao, Yuantao
背景：手足口病（手足口病）是一种常见的儿童传染病，已成为中国主要的公共卫生问题。相当多的研究集中在气象因素在手足口病发展中的作用。非线性关系、延迟效应和共线性问题是在这种天气-健康关系探索中实现鲁棒和准确估计的关键问题。本研究旨在解决这些问题，并评估气象因素对广东省手足口病的影响。方法：2010 - 2012年手足口病病例监测资料和每日气象资料分别来自中国疾病预防控制中心和国家气象信息中心。在初步选择变量的基础上，对各单项单项的BRT模型进行优化，确定最能解释手足口病病例变异的气象因子的最优滞后期，并在最优滞后期对各气象因子的影响进行评估。结果：1周前的气象因素是手足口病病例变异的主要原因。年龄较小的儿童及珠三角地区的儿童对天气变化较为敏感。气温对手足口病流行的影响最大（28.99 ~ 71.93%），其次是降水（6.52 ~ 16.11%）、湿度（3.92 ~ 17.66%）、风速（3.84 ~ 11.37%）和日照（621 ~ 10.36%）。温度在10℃~ 25℃之间，湿度在70% ~ 90%之间，对手足口病的流行有促进作用。日照时间超过9小时，风速低于2.5 mjs也会增加患手足口病的风险。当日降雨量超过25 mm时，手足口病与降雨量的正相关关系发生逆转。结论：本研究表明，在一定范围内，5种气象因子对手足口病的流行有显著的促进作用。本研究结果对在全球气候变化背景下发展手足口病预警和应对系统具有重要意义。(C) 2016 Elsevier By。版权所有。
Background: Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common childhood infection and has become a major public health issue in China. Considerable research has focused on the role of meteorological factors in HFMD development. Nonlinear relationship, delayed effects and collinearity problems are key issues for achieving robust and accurate estimations in this kind of weather -health relationship explorations. The current study was designed to address these issues and assess the impact of meteorological factors on HFMD in Guangdong, China.Methods: Case -based HFMD surveillance data and daily meteorological data collected between 2010 and 2012 was obtained from China CDC and Lhe National Meteorological Information Center, respectively. Alter a preliminary variable selection, for each dalasel boosted regression tree (BRT) models were applied to determine Lhe optimal lag for meteorological factors al which the variance of HFMD cases was most explained, and Lo assess Lhe impacts of these meteorological factors at the optimal lag.Results: Variance of HFMD cases was explained most by meteorological factors about 1 week ago. Younger children and those from the Pearl -River Delta Region were more sensitive to weather changes. Temperature had the largest contribution to HFMD epidemics (28.99-71.93%), followed by precipitation (6.52-16.11%), humidity (3.92-17.66%), wind speed (3.84-11.37%) and sunshine (621-10.36%). Temperature between 10 "C and 25 C, as well as humidity between 70% and 90%, had a facilitating effect on the epidemic of HFMD. Sunshine duration above 9h and wind speed below 2.5 mjs also contributed to an elevated risk of HFMD. The positive relationship between HFMD and precipitation reversed when the daily amount of rainfall exceeded 25 mm.Conclusions :This study indicated significantly facilitating effects of five meteorological factors within some range on the epidemic of HFMD. Results from the current study were particularly important for developing early warning and response system on HFMD in the context of global climate change. (C) 2016 Elsevier By. All rights reserved.