Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty
Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty
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DOI：
10.1038/ngeo1375
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发表时间：
2012-02-01
影响因子：
18.3
通讯作者：
Stephens, Graeme L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Loeb, Norman G.;Lyman, John M.;Stephens, Graeme L.
全球气候变化是由于地球吸收的太阳光量与向太空发射的热辐射之间存在微小但持续的不平衡(1)。从卫星测量推断出的净辐射不平衡的年际变化与从现场测量得出的上层海洋升温速率之间存在明显的不一致，这种不一致被解释为系统中的“缺失能量”(2)。在这里，我们根据卫星数据对大气顶部的净辐射进行了修正分析，并根据三个独立的来源估计了海洋热含量。我们发现，考虑到海洋测量的观测不确定性(3)，考虑到仪器和采样的转变，大气顶部热平衡和上层海洋热含量变化之间的差异在统计上并不显著。此外，发现与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动有关的地球能量不平衡的变率在卫星测量、再分析模式模拟和海洋热含量记录的观测不确定性中是一致的。我们将卫星数据与1800米深度的海洋测量数据结合起来，表明在2001年1月至2010年12月之间，地球一直在以0.50 +/- 0.43 Wm（-2）的速率稳定地积累能量（在90%置信水平上的不确定性）。我们的结论是，地下海洋的能量储存正在继续增加。
Global climate change results from a small yet persistent imbalance between the amount of sunlight absorbed by Earth and the thermal radiation emitted back to space(1). An apparent inconsistency has been diagnosed between interannual variations in the net radiation imbalance inferred from satellite measurements and upper-ocean heating rate from in situ measurements, and this inconsistency has been interpreted as 'missing energy' in the system(2). Here we present a revised analysis of net radiation at the top of the atmosphere from satellite data, and we estimate ocean heat content, based on three independent sources. We find that the difference between the heat balance at the top of the atmosphere and upper-ocean heat content change is not statistically significant when accounting for observational uncertainties in ocean measurements(3), given transitions in instrumentation and sampling. Furthermore, variability in Earth's energy imbalance relating to El Nino-Southern Oscillation is found to be consistent within observational uncertainties among the satellite measurements, a reanalysis model simulation and one of the ocean heat content records. We combine satellite data with ocean measurements to depths of 1,800 m, and show that between January 2001 and December 2010, Earth has been steadily accumulating energy at a rate of 0.50 +/- 0.43 Wm(-2) (uncertainties at the 90% confidence level). We conclude that energy storage is continuing to increase in the sub-surface ocean.