Next steps in geoengineering scenario research: Limited deployment scenarios and beyond
Next steps in geoengineering scenario research: Limited deployment scenarios and beyond
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地球工程场景研究的后续步骤：有限的部署场景及其他
DOI：
10.1080/14693062.2017.1323721
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
7.1
通讯作者：
Shingo Watanabe
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Masahiro Sugiyama;Yosuke Arino;Takanobu Kosugi;Atsushi Kurosawa;Shingo Watanabe
气候工程受到越来越多的关注，但它的讨论仍然是主流气候政策的边缘。由于《巴黎协定》的温度目标与全球减缓努力之间的差距，这一先前奇特的选择的政策相关性将上升。因此，了解拟议计划的风险和收益以及政策选择的社会影响至关重要。对太阳能地球工程的风险和效益的评估在很大程度上取决于情景，但以前的情景并没有反映出社会选择的全部范围。鉴于对风险的关切，需要一套更新的设想方案，更充分地体现不确定性和社会选择。借用和扩展新的社区气候情景过程的最新文献的经验教训，我们设想一个可能的社区建设过程，结合跨学科的奖学金与利益相关者和公民的参与。由此产生的情景将更好地描述太阳能地球工程的不确定性和政策选择，并促进对其风险和效益的严格评估。这种社会选择可能不仅包括全面禁止和大规模部署，还包括有限部署，这在设想方案文献中受到的关注较少。情景和治理研究之间的相互作用将能够突出关键问题，包括伦理、社会和政治层面。关键政策见解有必要对太阳能地球工程进行更全面的评估，以评估其风险和效益，需要新的情景研究关键是要反映政策选择和不确定性的整个跨度与跨学科的合作，在这样的行业，这样的社会选择可能不仅包括全面禁止和大规模部署，还包括有限部署，这在设想方案文献中受到的关注较少。
Climate engineering has received increasing attention, but its discussion has remained on the sidelines of mainstream climate policy. The policy relevance of this previously exotic option is poised to rise because of the gap between the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement and slow global mitigation efforts. It is therefore crucial to understand the risks and benefits of the proposed schemes, and the social implications of policy choices. Assessment of the risks and benefits of solar geoengineering strongly depends on scenarios, but previous scenarios have not reflected the full range of social choices. In light of concerns over risks, a newer set of scenarios is desirable, which represents both uncertainties and social choices more fully. Borrowing and extending lessons from recent literature on the new community climate scenario process, we envision a possible scenario-building process that combines interdisciplinary scholarship with the involvement of stakeholders and citizens. The resultant scenarios would better characterize uncertainties of, and policy choices for, solar geoengineering, and foster critical appraisal of its risks and benefits. Such societal choices might include not only total ban and large-scale deployment, but also limited deployment, which has received less attention in the scenario literature. The interaction between scenario and governance research would be able to highlight the central issues at stake, including ethical, social, and political dimensions.Key policy insightsA more comprehensive assessment of solar geoengineering is necessary to evaluate its risks and benefits, necessitating new scenario researchIt is crucial to reflect the full span of policy choices and uncertainties with interdisciplinary collaboration in such scenariosSuch societal choices might include not only total ban and large-scale deployment, but also limited deployment, which has received less attention in the scenario literatureParticipatory scenario research would enable incorporating the concerns and opinions of stakeholders and citizens in scenario creation