Statistical and trend analyses of rainfall: a case study of Bharathapuzha river basin, Kerala, India
Statistical and trend analyses of rainfall: a case study of Bharathapuzha river basin, Kerala, India
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降雨量统计与趋势分析：以印度喀拉拉邦巴拉塔普扎河流域为例
DOI：
10.1080/09715010.2013.843280
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
C. Anupama
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Jagadeesh;C. Anupama
本研究的目的是确定在喀拉拉邦的Bharathapuzha流域的年度和季节总降雨量的趋势，使用33年（1976-2008年）的月降雨量数据在4个雨量计站（Eruthempathy，Mangalam大坝，Thritala，和Malampuzha大坝）。该程序是基于非参数Mann-Kendall检验的趋势和非参数森的方法的趋势的大小。根据Mann-Kendall年降雨量和西南季风降雨量分析，观察到Eruthempathy和Malampuza大坝站的积极趋势。然而，在所有四个站考虑，东北季风降雨的负趋势，非季风降雨和季风前的正趋势，除了在Eruthempathy。根据Sen的分析，在年降雨量序列中，Malampuza大坝的降雨量最大增加了1.55 mm/年，而Thritala站的降雨量最大减少了-5.80 mm/年。对于西南季风，Eruthempathy站的最大增加量为2.09毫米/年，而Thritala站的最大减少量为-9.81毫米/年。另一方面，在Mangalam Dam站观测到的东北季风最大减少量为-2.63毫米/年。对于非季风，在Malampuza大坝观察到的最大增加量为0.85毫米/年，在Thritala观察到的最大增加量为2.20毫米/年。从线性回归分析中观察到类似的趋势，存在的Mann-Kendall Z统计量和森的斜率方法估计的年和季节降雨量序列。年降雨量总体趋势分析表明，北部和东部站点呈增加趋势，南部和西部站点呈减少趋势。目前的研究将指导Bharathapuzha河流域水资源的未来规划和管理。
This study aims to determine trends in the annual and seasonal total rainfall over Bharathapuzha catchment of Kerala using 33 years (1976–2008) of monthly rainfall data at four raingauge stations (Eruthempathy, Mangalam dam, Thrithala, and Malampuzha dam). The procedure is based on the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test for the trend and the nonparametric Sen’s method for the magnitude of the trend. From Mann–Kendall analysis for annual rainfall and southwest monsoon rainfall, a positive trend was observed for Eruthempathy and Malampuza dam stations. However, at all four stations considered, a negative trend was observed for the northeast monsoon rainfall, positive trend for nonmonsoon rainfall and premonsoon except at Eruthempathy. From Sen’s analysis, it was observed for an annual rainfall series a maximum increase of rainfall at Malampuza dam by 1.55 mm/year and a maximum reduction at Thrithala station by −5.80 mm/year. For southwest monsoon, a maximum increase of 2.09 mm/year at Eruthempathy station, and a maximum reduction of −9.81 mm/year observed at Thrithala station. On the other hand, a maximum reduction of −2.63 mm/year observed at Mangalam Dam station for northeast monsoon. For nonmonsoon, a maximum increase of 0.85 mm/year observed at Malampuza Dam and 2.20 mm/year at Thrithala. A similar trend observed from liner regression analysis, existed for annual and seasonal rainfall series estimated by Mann–Kendall Z statistics and Sen’s Slope method. Overall trend analysis for annual rainfall reveals stations in the north and east shows an increasing trend and stations in the south and west a decreasing trend. Current study will direct the future planning and management of water resources at Bharathapuzha river basin.