Comparing road traffic mortality rates from police-reported data and death registration data in China
Comparing road traffic mortality rates from police-reported data and death registration data in China
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DOI：
10.2471/blt.10.080317
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发表时间：
2011-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Baker, Susan P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hu, Guoqing;Baker, Timothy;Baker, Susan P
目的比较中国2002年至2007年道路交通伤害死亡与死亡登记数据的异同。方法采用标准化、封闭式数据采集方式，将中国2002年至2007年道路交通伤害死亡登记数据公布在《中国交通运输统计年鉴》中。官方的死亡登记数据则是从医生填写的死亡证明中获得的，并发布在《中国健康统计年鉴》上。我们在这两个来源搜索2002-2007年的道路交通死亡数据，使用X(2)检验比较获得的死亡率，并进行线性回归以寻找在这段时间内道路交通死亡的显著趋势。线性回归显示，根据警方提供的数据，死亡率在此期间显著下降了27%(95%可信区间，CI：35-19)，但根据死亡登记数据，死亡率没有显著变化。结论根据警方报告的数据，中国最近被广泛引用的道路交通死亡率下降可能并不反映真正的下降。从警方报告中获得的数据的质量需要调查、监测和改进，这些数据推动了中国政府和国际组织的决策。
Objective To compare death rates from road traffic injuries in China in 2002-2007 when derived from police-reported data versus death registration data.Methods In China, police-recorded data are obtained from police records by means of a standardized, closed-ended data collection form; these data are published in the China statistical yearbook of communication and transportation. Official death registration data, on the other hand, are obtained from death certificates completed by physicians and are published in the China health statistics yearbook. We searched both sources for data on road traffic deaths in 2002-2007, used the chi(2) test to compare the mortality rates obtained, and performed linear regression to look for statistically significant trends in road traffic mortality over the period.Findings For 2002-2007, the rate of death from road traffic injuries based on death registration data was about twice as high as the rate reported by the police. Linear regression showed a significant decrease of 27% (95% confidence interval, CI: 35-19) in the death rate over the period according to police sources but no significant change according to death registration data.Conclusion The widely-cited recent drop in road traffic mortality in China, based on police-reported data, may not reflect a genuine decrease. The quality of the data obtained from police reports, which drives decision-making by the Government of China and international organizations, needs to be investigated, monitored and improved.