Analysis of ship life cycles-The impact of economic cycles and ship inspections
Analysis of ship life cycles-The impact of economic cycles and ship inspections
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DOI：
10.1016/j.marpol.2008.08.003
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发表时间：
2009-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Knapp, Sabine
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bijwaard, Govert E.;Knapp, Sabine
由于航运业的国际法律框架存在漏洞，可能会因船舶操作不规范而增加事故风险，并带来高昂的经济成本。本文使用持续时间分析，并通过创建船舶生命周期来深入了解检查对延长船舶寿命的有效性。该分析考虑了相关经济环境的波动和（可能随时间变化的）船舶细节。它基于一个独特的数据集，其中包含29年（1978-2007）期间超过5万艘船舶的事故时间、检查和船舶特定变化的信息。结果表明，航运业是一个相对安全的行业，但可能存在对船舶的过度检查。检查的效果因船型而异，通过对所有类型的检查采取协调一致的方法，可以减少不必要的检查，从而改善对具有高经济成本的事故的预防。此外，应更加重视缺陷的纠正和跟踪以及ISM规范的执行。对船级社来说，另一个额外的好处是提高所有船级社退级和转级的透明度。另一个有趣的发现是，对于大多数船型来说，收益的增加会降低事故率。这与业界对盈利影响的看法形成鲜明对比。(C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd版权所有。
Due to the shipping industry's international legal framework, there are loopholes in the system, which can increase the risk of incidents with high economic costs due to the substandard operation of vessels. This article uses duration analysis and through the creation of ship life cycles provides insight into the effectiveness of inspections on prolonging ship lives. The analysis accounts for fluctuations in the relevant economic environment and the (possibly time-varying) ship particulars. It is based on a unique dataset containing information on the timing of accidents, inspections and ship particular changes of more than 50,000 vessels over a 29-year time period (1978-2007). The results reveal that the shipping industry is a relatively safe industry but there is a possible over-inspection of vessels. The effect of inspections varies across ship types and the prevention of incidents with high economic costs can be improved by a coordinated approach of all types of inspections that are performed which allows the decrease of unnecessary inspections. Further, more emphasis should be placed on the rectification and follow-up of deficiencies and the implementation of the ISM code. Another added benefit for the industry would be to improve transparency related to class withdrawals and class transfers for all classification societies. Another interesting finding is that for the majority of ship types, an increase in earnings decreases the incident rate. This is in contrast to the industry perception of the impact of earnings. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.