Early detection of drought impact on rice paddies in Indonesia by means of Niño 3.4 index
Early detection of drought impact on rice paddies in Indonesia by means of Niño 3.4 index
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利用 Niño 3.4 指数及早发现干旱对印度尼西亚稻田的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
N. Puspito
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. Surmaini;T. Hadi;K. Subagyono;N. Puspito
厄尔尼诺现象的特点是经常发生干旱，对印度尼西亚的农业生产造成严重后果。水稻干旱几乎每年都发生，并在厄尔尼诺现象期间延长。厄尔尼诺3.4指数通常被用作管理粮食安全政策的重要工具。然而，没有关于厄尔尼诺现象对干旱造成的水稻损害的影响的详细资料。我们开发了水稻干旱影响指数（PDII），这是干旱导致的水稻受损面积占水稻种植总面积的比例，以调查干旱对印度尼西亚335个地区水稻的影响。与其他农业干旱指数不同的是，该指数代表了干旱引起的水稻损失的实际百分比，以表明每个地区的相对干旱严重程度，这可以很容易地为实际用户所理解。使用交叉相关分析评估了Niño 3.4指数和PDII之间的联系。检查了最佳滞后时间Niño 3.4指数对PDII的散点图。研究结果表明，在PDII之前，3月和6月的Niño 3.4指数可以分别用于预测5月至7月和8月至10月的PDII。发现3月厄尔尼诺3.4指数的临界阈值在0.0至0.5 °C之间，这与随后5个月内发生弱厄尔尼诺的概率为0.57有关。另一方面，发生中度厄尔尼诺现象的概率较高，为0.67，这与6月厄尔尼诺3.4指数的临界阈值有关，该阈值范围为0.5-1.0 °C。这项研究发现，印度尼西亚发生的弱和中度厄尔尼诺现象造成的干旱的潜在影响是，产量平均减少约40%。我们还发现，5月至7月和8月至10月最易发生干旱的地区位于西爪哇，8月至10月位于南苏拉威西。
El Niño events have been frequently marked by drought occurrences with severe consequences for agricultural production in Indonesia. Paddy drought occurs almost every year and extends during El Niño phenomena. The Niño 3.4 index is commonly used as an important tool for managing a food security policy. However, there are no details regarding the impact of El Niño on drought-induced paddy damage. We developed the Paddy Drought Impact Index (PDII), which is the ratio of drought-induced paddy damaged area to the total paddy area planted in order to investigate the impact of drought on paddies among 335 districts in Indonesia. Unlike other agricultural drought indices, this index represents real-life percentage of drought-induced paddy damage to indicate each district’s relative severity to drought, which can be easily understood by practical users. The connection between the Niño 3.4 index and PDII was assessed using cross correlation analysis. Scatter plots of best lag time Niño 3.4 index against PDII were examined. The findings show that with 2 months lag of Niño 3.4 prior to PDII, March and June Niño 3.4 indices can be used to predict May–July and August–October PDII, respectively. Critical thresholds of the March Niño 3.4 index were found to range from 0.0 to 0.5 °C, which is associated with a 0.57 probability of weak El Niño occurrence during the subsequent 5 months. On the other hand, a higher probability of 0.67 for occurrences of moderate El Niño is associated with the critical thresholds of June Niño 3.4 index, which ranges from 0.5–1.0 °C. This study has found that the potential impact of drought due to the weak and moderate El Niño occurrences in Indonesia is such that yields are reduced by about 40 % in average. We also found that the most drought-prone areas are located in West Java for both May–July and August–October and in South Sulawesi for August–October.