A curve of thresholds governs plague epizootics in Central Asia
A curve of thresholds governs plague epizootics in Central Asia
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01767.x
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发表时间：
2012-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Leirs, Herwig
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Reijniers, Jonas;Davis, Stephen;Leirs, Herwig
传染病流行病学的一个核心概念是丰度阈值，低于该阈值，感染无法侵入或持续。关于病媒传播疾病阈值的性质，理论上有不同的预测，但对于无脊椎动物病媒的感染，通常假定阈值由病媒和宿主丰度的比率确定。在这里，我们表明，相反，无论是从现场数据和模型模拟，鼠疫（鼠疫耶尔森氏菌）在哈萨克斯坦，入侵阈值量是基于其主机（大沙鼠）和载体（主要是客蚤属）的产品。丰度，导致具有双曲线形状的组合阈值曲线。这种形状意味着宿主和病媒丰度之间的补偿，允许感染，这对疾病控制具有重要意义。有数据支持的切实可行的联合阈值应能促进更好地了解、预测和管理这一病媒和其他病媒传播疾病系统中的疾病发生。
Ecology Letters (2012) Abstract A core concept of infectious disease epidemiology is the abundance threshold, below which an infection is unable to invade or persist. There have been contrasting theoretical predictions regarding the nature of this threshold for vector-borne diseases, but for infections with an invertebrate vector, it is common to assume a threshold defined by the ratio of vector and host abundances. Here, we show in contrast, both from field data and model simulations, that for plague (Yersinia pestis) in Kazakhstan, the invasion threshold quantity is based on the product of its host (Rhombomys opimus) and vector (mainly Xenopsylla spp.) abundances, resulting in a combined threshold curve with hyperbolic shape. This shape implies compensation between host and vector abundances in permitting infection, which has important implications for disease control. Realistic joint thresholds, supported by data, should promote improved understanding, prediction and management of disease occurrence in this and other vector-borne disease systems.