Demographic Basis of Spatially Structured Fluctuations in a Threespine Stickleback Metapopulation
Demographic Basis of Spatially Structured Fluctuations in a Threespine Stickleback Metapopulation
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DOI：
10.1086/722741
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发表时间：
2023-03-01
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Rasanen，Katja
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Phillips，Joseph S. S.;Einarsson，Arni;Rasanen，Katja
揭示人口波动的人口基础是人口生物学的核心目标。这对于空间结构化的人口来说尤其具有挑战性，因为这需要将人口统计率的同步性与通过位置之间的移动产生的耦合分开。在这项研究中，我们适合一个阶段结构的集合种群模型，以29年的时间序列的threespine棘鱼丰度在异质性和生产力湖，冰岛。该湖包括两个盆地（北部和南部），由一条通道连接，棘鱼通过该通道分散。该模型包括随时间变化的人口统计率，使我们能够评估招募和生存的潜在贡献，通过运动的空间耦合，以及人口数量的大幅波动。我们的分析表明，招聘只是适度同步的两个流域之间，而成年人的生存概率更强烈的同步，有助于在整个湖泊的人口规模的周期波动，约6年。分析进一步表明，两个盆地通过运动耦合，北盆补贴南盆，并发挥主导作用，在驱动整个湖泊的动态。我们的研究结果表明，一个集合种群的周期性波动可以解释同步人口统计率和空间耦合的综合影响。
Uncovering the demographic basis of population fluctuations is a central goal of population biology. This is particularly challenging for spatially structured populations, which require disentangling synchrony in demographic rates from coupling via movement between locations. In this study, we fit a stage-structured metapopulation model to a 29-year time series of threespine stickleback abundance in the heterogeneous and productive Lake Mývatn, Iceland. The lake comprises two basins (North and South) connected by a channel through which the stickleback disperse. The model includes time-varying demographic rates, allowing us to assess the potential contributions of recruitment and survival, spatial coupling via movement, and demographic transience to the population’s large fluctuations in abundance. Our analyses indicate that recruitment was only modestly synchronized between the two basins, whereas survival probabilities of adults were more strongly synchronized, contributing to cyclic fluctuations in the lake-wide population size with a period of approximately 6 years. The analyses further show that the two basins were coupled through movement, with the North Basin subsidizing the South Basin and playing a dominant role in driving the lake-wide dynamics. Our results show that cyclic fluctuations of a metapopulation can be explained in terms of the combined effects of synchronized demographic rates and spatial coupling.