Introduction and expansion of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant and reinfections in Qatar: A nationally representative cohort study.
Introduction and expansion of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant and reinfections in Qatar: A nationally representative cohort study.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pmed.1003879
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发表时间：
2021-12
期刊：
影响因子：
15.8
通讯作者：
Bertollini R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Abu-Raddad LJ;Chemaitelly H;Ayoub HH;Coyle P;Malek JA;Ahmed AA;Mohamoud YA;Younuskunju S;Tang P;Al Kanaani Z;Al Kuwari E;Butt AA;Jeremijenko A;Kaleeckal AH;Latif AN;Shaik RM;Abdul Rahim HF;Nasrallah GK;Yassine HM;Al Kuwari MG;Al Romaihi HE;Al-Thani MH;Al Khal A;Bertollini R
SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7（或Alpha）变体的流行病学尚未得到充分了解。本研究的目的是描述在卡塔尔引入和扩大这种变异，并估计自然感染对这种变异再感染的疗效。在158，608名既往经PCR确认感染的个体和42，848名抗体阳性个体的国家队列中研究了B.1.1.7变体和未知状态变体的再感染。还在132，701名抗体阴性个体的国家对照队列中研究了B.1.1.7和未知状态变体的感染。B.1.1.7于2020年12月25日首次在卡塔尔发现。从2021年1月18日开始观察到B.1.1.7疫情突然大规模扩张，引发了第二波疫情，即第一波疫情后7个月。B.1.1.7的感染性比原始（野生型）循环变体高约60%。在既往PCR确认感染的人群中，B.1.1.7的自然感染对再感染的有效性估计为97.5%（95% CI：95.7%-98.6%），未知状态变异体为92.2%（95% CI：90.6%-93.5%）。在抗体阳性人群中，B.1.1.7的自然感染对再感染的有效性估计为97.0%（95% CI：92.5%-98.7%），未知状态的变异体为94.2%（95% CI：91.8%-96.0%）。本研究的一个主要局限性是根据记录的PCR证实的再感染评估再感染，但其他再感染可能已经发生并没有记录。在这项研究中，我们观察到将B.1.1.7引入未感染人群可以产生一个主要的流行波，但先前感染者的天然免疫力与B.1.1.7或其他变体的再感染发生率有限密切相关。Laith Abu-Raddad及其同事描述了SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7变体在卡塔尔国家队列中的引入和扩展。英国出现了一种新的SARS-CoV-2变体B.1.1.7（也称为Alpha），但对将这种变体引入新的国家人群的后果还没有充分的了解。第一个研究目的是描述B.1.1.7在引入该变体的初治人群后立即发生的流行病学特征。第二个研究目的是研究B.1.1.7的再感染，并评估自然感染对该变体再感染的疗效。我们使用2项国家回顾性队列研究、数学建模和其他统计分析来调查B.1.1.7的流行病学，以回答研究的研究问题。B.1.1.7病毒变种传入卡塔尔后不久，B.1.1.7病毒突然爆发了一波大规模、快速增长的流行病，研究结果表明，B.1.1.7病毒的传染性比最初的野生型流行变种高出约60%。在既往PCR确认感染的患者中，自然感染对B.1.1.7再感染的有效性估计为97.5%（95% CI：95.7%至98.6%），在既往抗体阳性结果的患者中为97.0%（95% CI：92.5%至98.7%）。鉴于其传染性，B.1.1.7变异一旦引入未感染人群，即使存在公共卫生限制和高水平的天然免疫力，也可能引发流行病浪潮。先前感染野生型SARS-CoV-2变异体与针对B.1.1.7感染的强保护相关，B.1.1.7是一种似乎与严重免疫逃避无关的变异体。
The epidemiology of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 (or Alpha) variant is insufficiently understood. This study’s objective was to describe the introduction and expansion of this variant in Qatar and to estimate the efficacy of natural infection against reinfection with this variant. Reinfections with the B.1.1.7 variant and variants of unknown status were investigated in a national cohort of 158,608 individuals with prior PCR-confirmed infections and a national cohort of 42,848 antibody-positive individuals. Infections with B.1.1.7 and variants of unknown status were also investigated in a national comparator cohort of 132,701 antibody-negative individuals. B.1.1.7 was first identified in Qatar on 25 December 2020. Sudden, large B.1.1.7 epidemic expansion was observed starting on 18 January 2021, triggering the onset of epidemic’s second wave, 7 months after the first wave. B.1.1.7 was about 60% more infectious than the original (wild-type) circulating variants. Among persons with a prior PCR-confirmed infection, the efficacy of natural infection against reinfection was estimated to be 97.5% (95% CI: 95.7% to 98.6%) for B.1.1.7 and 92.2% (95% CI: 90.6% to 93.5%) for variants of unknown status. Among antibody-positive persons, the efficacy of natural infection against reinfection was estimated to be 97.0% (95% CI: 92.5% to 98.7%) for B.1.1.7 and 94.2% (95% CI: 91.8% to 96.0%) for variants of unknown status. A main limitation of this study is assessment of reinfections based on documented PCR-confirmed reinfections, but other reinfections could have occurred and gone undocumented. In this study, we observed that introduction of B.1.1.7 into a naïve population can create a major epidemic wave, but natural immunity in those previously infected was strongly associated with limited incidence of reinfection by B.1.1.7 or other variants. Laith Abu-Raddad and colleagues describe the introduction and expansion of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant in a national cohort in Qatar. A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant emerged in the United Kingdom, B.1.1.7 (known also as Alpha), but the consequences of the introduction of this variant into a new national population are insufficiently understood. The first study objective was to characterize the epidemiology of B.1.1.7 immediately after its introduction into a naïve population for this variant. The second study objective was to investigate reinfections with B.1.1.7 and to estimate the efficacy of natural infection against reinfection with this variant. We investigated the epidemiology of B.1.1.7 using 2 national retrospective cohort studies, mathematical modeling, and other statistical analyses to answer the study’s research questions. A sudden, large, and rapidly growing epidemic wave of B.1.1.7 cases commenced shortly after introduction of this variant into Qatar, and findings suggest that B.1.1.7 was approximately 60% more infectious than the original wild-type circulating variants. The efficacy of natural infection against reinfection with B.1.1.7 was estimated at 97.5% (95% CI: 95.7% to 98.6%) among those with a prior PCR-confirmed infection and at 97.0% (95% CI: 92.5% to 98.7%) among those with a prior antibody-positive result. Given its infectiousness, the B.1.1.7 variant can spark an epidemic wave once introduced into a naïve population, even in the presence of public health restrictions and high levels of natural immunity. Prior infection with a wild-type SARS-CoV-2 variant is associated with strong protection against infection with B.1.1.7, a variant that does not appear to be associated with serious immune evasion.
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SARS-COV-2血统的估计可传播和影响B.1.1.7在英国。
DOI：
10.1126/science.abg3055
发表时间：
2021-04-09
期刊：
Science (New York, N.Y.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Davies NG;Abbott S;Barnard RC;Jarvis CI;Kucharski AJ;Munday JD;Pearson CAB;Russell TW;Tully DC;Washburne AD;Wenseleers T;Gimma A;Waites W;Wong KLM;van Zandvoort K;Silverman JD;CMMID COVID-19 Working Group;COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium;Diaz-Ordaz K;Keogh R;Eggo RM;Funk S;Jit M;Atkins KE;Edmunds WJ
通讯作者：
Edmunds WJ
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Ayoub, Houssein H.;Chemaitelly, Hiam;Abu-Raddad, Laith J.
通讯作者：
Abu-Raddad, Laith J.
影响因子：
2
作者：
Ayoub, Houssein H.;Chemaitelly, Hiam;Abu-Raddad, Laith J.
通讯作者：
Abu-Raddad, Laith J.
影响因子：
82.9
作者：
Chemaitelly, Hiam;Yassine, Hadi M.;Abu-Raddad, Laith J.
通讯作者：
Abu-Raddad, Laith J.
DOI：
10.1056/nejmoa2035389
发表时间：
2021-02-04
期刊：
The New England journal of medicine
影响因子：
--
作者：
Baden LR;El Sahly HM;Essink B;Kotloff K;Frey S;Novak R;Diemert D;Spector SA;Rouphael N;Creech CB;McGettigan J;Khetan S;Segall N;Solis J;Brosz A;Fierro C;Schwartz H;Neuzil K;Corey L;Gilbert P;Janes H;Follmann D;Marovich M;Mascola J;Polakowski L;Ledgerwood J;Graham BS;Bennett H;Pajon R;Knightly C;Leav B;Deng W;Zhou H;Han S;Ivarsson M;Miller J;Zaks T;COVE Study Group
通讯作者：
COVE Study Group