How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence
How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence
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DOI：
10.1257/aer.20151299
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发表时间：
2018-09-01
影响因子：
10.7
通讯作者：
Kumar, Saten
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Coibion, Olivier;Gorodnichenko, Yurii;Kumar, Saten
我们调查了新西兰的公司，并记录了有关他们宏观经济信念的新事实。对于过去和未来的宏观经济状况，尤其是通货膨胀，人们的看法普遍存在差异。这种信念的分散与公司收集和处理信息的动机是一致的。通过实验方法，我们发现企业在面对有关经济的新信息时，会以贝叶斯方式更新他们的信念，而信念的变化会影响他们的决策。人们通常认为通货膨胀对商业决策并不重要，因此企业很少投入资源来收集和处理有关通货膨胀的信息。
We survey New Zealand firms and document novel facts about their macroeconomic beliefs. There is widespread dispersion in beliefs about past and future macroeconomic conditions, especially inflation. This dispersion in beliefs is consistent with firms' incentives to collect and process information. Using experimental methods, we find that firms update their beliefs in a Bayesian manner when presented with new information about the economy and that changes in their beliefs affect their decisions. Inflation is not generally perceived as being important to business decisions so firms devote few resources to collecting and processing information about inflation.