Approaches and terminology for causal analysis in land systems science
Approaches and terminology for causal analysis in land systems science
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DOI：
10.1080/1747423x.2015.1117530
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发表时间：
2016-09
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
P. Meyfroidt
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Meyfroidt
土地和社会生态系统科学的研究可以受益于因果分析术语的清晰度提高和因果推理的结构化方法。本文从因果效应和因果机制两个方面论述了因果关系的历史科学解释。然后，我提出了用于因果关系的主要术语的定义，包括驱动程序，（空间）决定因素，位置和上下文因素，近因和潜在因素。最后，我讨论了各种操作方法的贡献，包括时间序列和反事实的方法来评估因果关系的影响和过程跟踪方法建立因果机制。有一个连贯的因果关系概念，商定一个精确的词汇，并利用我们的工具，明确目的是建立因果效应和因果机制，应加强对单个案例的因果解释，以吸取与政策有关的教训，并在土地和更广泛的社会生态系统过程的理论发展。
ABSTRACT Research into land and social-ecological systems science could benefit from improved clarity in the terminology used for causal analysis and a structured way to make causal inferences. Here I identify two aspects of causality, i.e. causal effects and causal mechanisms, and discuss explanation in historical sciences. I then propose definitions for the major terms used for causal relations, including driver, (spatial) determinant, location and contextual factor, proximate and underlying factors. Finally, I discuss the contribution of various operational approaches, including time series and counterfactual approaches for assessing causal effects and process-tracing approaches for establishing causal mechanisms. Having a coherent concept of causality, agreeing on a precise vocabulary and harnessing our tools with the clear purpose of establishing both causal effects and causal mechanisms should strengthen causal explanations for single cases, for drawing policy-relevant lessons and for theoretical development in relation to land and, more broadly, social-ecological systems processes.