Stability of Zero-growth Economics Analysed with a Minskyan Model
Stability of Zero-growth Economics Analysed with a Minskyan Model
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用明斯基模型分析零增长经济学的稳定性
DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.10.014
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
7
通讯作者：
Barrett A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Barrett A
随着人类越来越面临地球有限的生物物理极限，人们对零增长资本主义经济的稳定性和公平性问题越来越感兴趣，最值得注意的是：如果维持正贷款利率，零增长经济能否稳定？人们已经在几种不同的宏观经济模型上探讨了这个问题，并得到了“是”和“否”的答案。然而，无论生产力是否持续增长以维持产出增长，经济都可能变得不稳定。在这里，我们第一次尝试通过模型评估增长与非增长情景的相对稳定性。所采用的模型借鉴了基恩的明斯基金融不稳定假说模型。该分析侧重于动态而不是均衡，并且通过调整生产率增长输入参数来获得产出（GDP）增长和不增长的情景。我们确认，无论有没有增长，都可能存在稳定和不稳定的情况。为了保持稳定，企业不得过快改变债务水平或目标债务水平。此外，根据该模型，尽管就业大幅下降的情况更为频繁，但零增长情景下的工资份额更高。
As humanity is becoming increasingly confronted by Earth's finite biophysical limits, there is increasing interest in questions about the stability and equitability of a zero-growth capitalist economy, most notably: if one maintains a positive interest rate for loans, can a zero-growth economy be stable? This question has been explored on a few different macroeconomic models, and both ‘yes' and ‘no’ answers have been obtained. However, economies can become unstable whether or not there is ongoing underlying growth in productivity with which to sustain growth in output. Here we attempt, for the first time, to assess via a model the relative stability of growth versus no-growth scenarios. The model employed draws from Keen's model of the Minsky financial instability hypothesis. The analysis focuses on dynamics as opposed to equilibrium, and scenarios of growth and no-growth of output (GDP) are obtained by tweaking a productivity growth input parameter. We confirm that, with or without growth, there can be both stable and unstable scenarios. To maintain stability, firms must not change their debt levels or target debt levels too quickly. Further, according to the model, the wages share is higher for zero-growth scenarios, although there are more frequent substantial drops in employment.