Adapting overhead lines to climate change: Are dynamic ratings the answer?
Adapting overhead lines to climate change: Are dynamic ratings the answer?
复制标题
使架空线路适应气候变化：动态评级是答案吗？
DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2013.08.052
复制
发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Cradden L
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cradden L
架空线路 (OHL) 的热额定值由所承载的电流和周围气候条件决定。气候变化导致的气温升高将导致额定值降低，从而降低整个电网的载流能力。再加上需求增长和在网络薄弱部分安装可再生能源发电，这可能需要昂贵的加固和升级。之前在英国开展的工作，应用了英国气候预测模型 (UKCP09) 的数据子集，确实表明在最坏情况温度升高的情况下，稳态 OHL 评级可能会降低。在目前的工作中，来自完整 UKCP09 概率气候变化建模框架的时间序列数据（包括纳入每小时风况的附加算法）应用于 OHL 评级。我们并没有仅仅关注最坏情况，而是分析了热约束 OHL 超过标称额定值的风险增加的可能性。研究表明，虽然未来气候变化情景下的风险略有增加，但总体风险仍然较低。该模型进一步表明，实时动态评级系统的广泛使用可能代表对于经常受到热约束的线路最具成本效益的适应方法。
Thermal ratings of overhead lines (OHL) are determined by the current being carried and ambient climatic conditions. Higher temperatures as a result of climate change will give rise to lower ratings, and thus a reduction in current-carrying capacity across the electricity network. Coupled with demand growth and installation of renewable generation on weaker sections of the network, this could necessitate costly reinforcements and upgrades. Previous UK-based work applying a subset of data from the UK Climate Projections model (UKCP09) has indeed indicated likely reductions in the steady-state OHL ratings under worst-case temperature increases. In the present work, time series data from the full UKCP09 probabilistic climate change modelling framework, including an additional algorithm to incorporate hourly wind conditions, is applied to OHL ratings. Rather than focus purely on worst-case conditions, the potential for an increased risk of exceeding nominal ratings values on thermally constrained OHL is analysed. It is shown that whilst there is a small increase in risk under future climate change scenarios, the overall risk remains low. The model further demonstrates that widespread use of real-time dynamic rating systems are likely to represent the most cost-efficient adaptation method for lines which are frequently thermally constrained.
登录
查看更多内容
使用 UKCP09 投影构建未来天气文件以用于建筑模拟
影响因子：
1.7
作者：
R. Watkins;G. Levermore;J. Parkinson
通讯作者：
J. Parkinson
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
M. Parry
通讯作者：
M. Parry
UKCP09：风速的概率预测
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
D. Sexton;J. Murphy
通讯作者：
J. Murphy
展示智能配电网络中动态评级的容量优势
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2010
期刊：
IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Conference
影响因子：
--
作者：
Luis F. Ochoa;Lucy C Cradden;Gareth P. Harrison
通讯作者：
Gareth P. Harrison
环境条件对电力系统额定值影响的调查
DOI：
10.1243/09576509jpe718
发表时间：
2009
期刊：
Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part A: Journal of Power and Energy
影响因子：
--
作者：
A. Michiorri;P. Taylor;S. Jupe;C. Berry
通讯作者：
C. Berry