ON IRRELEVANCE OF ALTERNATIVES AND OPINION POOLING
ON IRRELEVANCE OF ALTERNATIVES AND OPINION POOLING
复制标题
关于替代方案和意见汇集的无关性
DOI：
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发表时间：
2002
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Gustavo L. Gilardoni
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gustavo L. Gilardoni
我们考虑了将k个主观概率分布组合为一个感兴趣的量的问题。引入了两个修正的方案无关性公理，将其重点放在合意条件几率上，而不是合意概率上。对公理的一个强修正要求共识几率仅取决于个体几率，而一个弱修正要求共识几率仅取决于专家为所考虑的两个事件指定的概率。我们表明，提供了一些正则性条件，stronlgy修改公理导致对数意见池的特征。我们还刻画了满足弱修改公理的所有池的类。这个类不仅包含线性和对数的对数，但也池已被认为是以前在文献中没有公理化的理由。
Summary We consider the problem of combining k subjective probability distributions for a quantity of interest � ∈ �. Two modified versions of the irrelevance of alternatives axiom are introduced by focusing on the consensual conditional odds, rather than the consensual probabilities. A strong modification of the axiom requires that the consensual odds depend only on the individual odds, while a weak modification requires that the consensual odds depend exclusively on the probabilities assigned by the experts to the two events being considered. We show that, provided some regularity conditions, the stronlgy modified axiom leads to characterization of the Logarithmic Opinion Pool. We also characterize the class of all the pools satisfying the weakly modified axiom. This class contains not only the Linear and the Logarithmic Pools but also pools that have been considered previously in the literature without axiomatic justifications.