USING ACCIDENT OBSERVATIONS TO EVALUATE REAR END ACCIDENT RISK AT FOUR-LEGGED SIGNALIZED INTERSECTIONS
USING ACCIDENT OBSERVATIONS TO EVALUATE REAR END ACCIDENT RISK AT FOUR-LEGGED SIGNALIZED INTERSECTIONS
复制标题
利用事故观察评估四路信号交叉口的追尾事故风险
DOI：
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发表时间：
1999
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
K. Takahashi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yinhi Wang;H. Ieda;K. Saito;K. Takahashi
通过对追尾事故发生前车辆运动的微观分析，认为追尾事故的发生有两个不可缺少的前提：一是遇到障碍物车辆，二是即将到来的车辆驾驶员未能避免碰撞。追尾事故风险表示为前车减速的概率与后车驾驶员未能有效反应的概率的乘积。建立了一个利用事故观测值估计追尾事故风险的负二项回归模型，发现几个因素对追尾事故风险有显著影响。
Based on the microscopic analysis of the vehicle movements before a rear end collision, the occurrence of rear end accidents is considered to have two indispensable premises in this study - one is encountering of an obstacle vehicle, and the other is that the forthcoming vehicle driver failed to avoid the collision. Rear end accident risk is expressed as the product of the probability of the leading vehicles deceleration and the probability of the following driver failed to response effectively. A negative binomial regression model for estimating rear end accident risk by using accident observations is developed, and several factors were found to affect rear end accident risk significantly.