The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to C4MIP: quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions
The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to C4MIP: quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions
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DOI：
10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019
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发表时间：
2019-10-15
影响因子：
5.1
通讯作者：
Burger, Friedrich A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jones, Chris D.;Froelicher, Thomas L.;Burger, Friedrich A.
在完全停止CO2排放之后，未来温度的额外变化量是对由于已经排放到大气中的CO2而导致的未实现的变暖的衡量。在估计剩余碳预算时，这种“零排放承诺”（ZEC）也是一个重要的数量--对二氧化碳排放总量的限制，与将全球平均气温限制在特定水平相一致。在最近的IPCC关于全球变暖1.5摄氏度的特别报告中，用于计算1.5摄氏度剩余碳预算的碳预算框架包括二氧化碳排放的ZEC可以忽略不计并接近于零的假设。以前的研究表明，即使在ZEC的标志显着的不确定性。为了缩小这一知识差距，我们提出了零排放承诺模型相互比较项目（ZECMIP），该项目将量化二氧化碳排放停止后发生的未实现的温度变化，并调查这种气候响应背后的地球物理驱动因素。关于ZEC的定量信息是我们知识中的一个关键空白，目前计划的CMIP 6模拟无法解决这一问题，但它对于验证是否需要调整碳预算以考虑过去二氧化碳排放造成的任何未实现的温度变化至关重要。我们只要求综合大气环流地球系统模型（ESM）和中等复杂性地球系统模型（EMIC）中的一个最高优先级模拟-模拟中1% CO2运行的一个分支，在1000 PgC的CO2总排放量处将CO2排放量设置为零-如果资源允许，还可以进行额外的模拟。ZECMIP是CMIP 6的一部分，由C4 MIP和CDR-MIP联合赞助，相关的实验名称使数据能够提交给地球系统网格联合会。所有数据都将公布并免费提供。
The amount of additional future temperature change following a complete cessation of CO2 emissions is a measure of the unrealized warming to which we are committed due to CO2 already emitted to the atmosphere. This "zero emissions commitment" (ZEC) is also an important quantity when estimating the remaining carbon budget - a limit on the total amount of CO2 emissions consistent with limiting global mean temperature at a particular level. In the recent IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 degrees C, the carbon budget framework used to calculate the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 degrees C included the assumption that the ZEC due to CO2 emissions is negligible and close to zero. Previous research has shown significant uncertainty even in the sign of the ZEC. To close this knowledge gap, we propose the Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP), which will quantify the amount of unrealized temperature change that occurs after CO2 emissions cease and investigate the geophysical drivers behind this climate response. Quantitative information on ZEC is a key gap in our knowledge, and one that will not be addressed by currently planned CMIP6 simulations, yet it is crucial for verifying whether carbon budgets need to be adjusted to account for any unrealized temperature change resulting from past CO2 emissions. We request only one top-priority simulation from comprehensive general circulation Earth system models (ESMs) and Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) - a branch from the 1% CO2 run with CO2 emissions set to zero at the point of 1000 PgC of total CO2 emissions in the simulation - with the possibility for additional simulations, if resources allow. ZECMIP is part of CMIP6, under joint sponsorship by C4MIP and CDR-MIP, with associated experiment names to enable data submissions to the Earth System Grid Federation. All data will be published and made freely available.