Intended and ideal family size in the United States, 1970-2002
Intended and ideal family size in the United States, 1970-2002
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1728-4457.2005.00081.x
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发表时间：
2005-09-01
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Morgan, SP
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hagewen, KJ;Morgan, SP
在全国范围内，观察到的生育率远低于报告的理想家庭规模的平均水平，也通常远低于调查对象的生育愿望和意图。美国是个例外。在本文中，我们：（1）讨论生育理想和意图对理解观察到的生育水平的重要性，（2）提出一个模型，可以解释可变的态度-行为一致性，（3）使用这个模型作为一个框架，以检查美国妇女的生育理想，意图和实际生育的趋势。我们的研究使用了综合社会调查和当前人口调查的数据。我们要问的是，对中等家庭规模的偏好和意愿是否随着时间的推移而减弱。答案非常明确：美国的主导理想和意图是生两个或三个孩子，而且这些偏好在过去三十年中一直存在。在美国，生育意愿和生育行为之间不寻常的总体对应关系可以用相对于生育意愿增加/减少的因素的明显抵消来解释。
Cross-nationally, observed fertility is well below mean levels of reported ideal family size and also usually well below survey respondents' fertility desires and intentions. The United States is an exception. In this article we: (1) discuss the importance of fertility ideals and intentions for understanding observed fertility levels, (2) propose a model that can account for variable attitude-behavior consistency, and (3) use this model as a framework to examine trends in American women's fertility ideals, intentions, and actual fertility. Our study uses data from the General Social Surveys and the Current Population Surveys. We ask whether preferences and intentions for moderate family sizes have eroded with time. The answer is remarkably clear: the dominant American ideals and intentions are for two or three children, and these preferences have persisted across the last three decades. The unusual aggregate correspondence between fertility intentions and behavior in the United States is explained by an apparent offsetting of factors that increase/decrease fertility relative to intentions.