Survival and local recruitment are driven by environmental carry-over effects from the wintering area in a migratory seabird
Survival and local recruitment are driven by environmental carry-over effects from the wintering area in a migratory seabird
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DOI：
10.1007/s00442-015-3298-2
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发表时间：
2015-04
期刊：
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
K. Lesley Szostek;Peter H. Becker
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Lesley Szostek;Peter H. Becker
我们估计每年的表观存活率，以及当地招聘率在不同年龄组和不同的繁殖状态，在常见的ternSterna hirundousing标记重捕分析的长期个人为基础的数据集从繁殖殖民地在德国。存活率的年际变化很明显，特别是在探矿者中。当地征聘情况在不同年份和年龄组之间也有很大差异。为了解释这些波动，我们将生存和补充估计与预计在越冬期和迁徙期间限制的几个环境协变量联系起来，包括北大西洋涛动和南方涛动的全球气候指数、鱼类丰度指数以及西非的海洋初级生产力。非洲越冬区。与预期相反的是，全球指数似乎与人口动态死亡率没有密切联系。结果表明，初级生产力对年生存率的影响最大，特别是在年轻和缺乏经验的个人。在越冬区的初级生产力也密切相关的概率招聘在接下来的繁殖季节，表明在冬季的条件可以有结转个人的生命周期的影响。
We estimated annual apparent survival rates, as well as local recruitment rates in different age groups and for different breeding status in the common ternSterna hirundousing mark–recapture analysis on a long-term individual-based dataset from a breeding colony in Germany. Strong inter-annual variability in survival rates became apparent, especially in prospectors. Local recruitment also varied strongly between years and age groups. To explain these fluctuations, we linked survival and recruitment estimates to several environmental covariates expected to be limiting during the wintering period and migration, including the global climate indices of North Atlantic Oscillation and Southern Oscillation, fish abundance indices, and marine primary productivity in the West African wintering area. Contrary to expectations, global indices did not seem to be linked strongly to vital rates. Results showed that primary productivity had the strongest effect on annual survival, especially in young and inexperienced individuals. Primary productivity in the wintering area was also strongly associated with the probability of recruitment in the following breeding season, indicating that conditions during winter can have carry-over effects on the life cycle of individuals.