Acceptable losses? The relative impacts of natural hazards in the United States, 1980-2009
Acceptable losses? The relative impacts of natural hazards in the United States, 1980-2009
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ijdrr.2013.08.001
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发表时间：
2013-09-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Emrich, Christopher T.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ash, Kevin D.;Cutter, Susan L.;Emrich, Christopher T.
地方和区域灾害管理计划进行损失和影响研究，以确定未来缓解方案资金的优先顺序。然而，灾害损失记录通常只包括对财产和农作物的直接损害。需要更灵活地衡量灾害损失和影响，以便能够在不同地点和不同时间范围内进行比较，作为确定救灾和减灾资源轻重缓急的一种机制。这项研究介绍了美国县级的相对损失率。收集1980-2009年期间地球物理、气象和水文灾害造成的所有损失。损失数据是通过使用县和州的就业数据以及州国内生产总值估计计算的经济能力来标准化的。统计区域化技术被用来识别美国的危险地区，与其经济能力相比，这些地区一直遭受严重损失。对于美国来说，平均相对损失率是美国GDP的0.15%，这表明总体上灾害的相对影响并不是那么大。然而，缩减到地区或县一级则显示出不同的结果，对许多地方的相对影响超过了县GDP的10%，在美国中部和墨西哥湾沿岸超过了地区GDP的3%。虽然国家吸收灾害和从灾害中恢复的能力相当高，但地方能力往往因个别大型事件或较小事件的累积影响而超出能力，因此有必要涌入外部援助，以帮助这些地方从灾害中恢复。(C)2013爱思唯尔有限公司。保留所有权利，
Local and regional hazard management initiatives undertake loss and impact studies to prioritize funds for future mitigation programs. However, hazard loss records typically include only direct damages to property and crops. More flexible measures of hazard losses and impacts are needed to allow comparisons across local places and different time frames, as one mechanism for prioritizing disaster aid and mitigation resources. This study introduces a relative loss ratio at the county level for the US. All losses from geophysical, meteorological, and hydrologic hazards are collected for the period 1980-2009. The loss data are normalized by a measure of economic capacity calculated using county and state employment data and state Gross Domestic Product estimates. A statistical regionalization technique is utilized to identify hazard regions of the US which consistently suffered heavy losses in comparison to their economic capacities. For the nation, the average relative loss ratio is 0.15% of the US GDP, suggesting that overall relative impact of disasters has not been that large. However, downscaling to regional or county levels shows a different result with the relative impact exceeding 10% of county GDP for many places, and more than 3% of regional GDP in the central US and the Gulf Coast. While the national capacity to absorb and recover from disasters is quite high, local capacities are often exceeded by singular large events or the cumulative impacts of smaller events, necessitating the influx of external aid to help these places recover from hazards. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved,