Impact of the Covid-19 epidemic and related social distancing regulations on social contact and SARS-CoV-2 transmission potential in rural South Africa: analysis of repeated cross-sectional surveys.
Impact of the Covid-19 epidemic and related social distancing regulations on social contact and SARS-CoV-2 transmission potential in rural South Africa: analysis of repeated cross-sectional surveys.
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DOI：
10.1186/s12879-021-06604-8
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发表时间：
2021-09-08
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Harling G
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
McCreesh N;Dlamini V;Edwards A;Olivier S;Dayi N;Dikgale K;Nxumalo S;Dreyer J;Baisley K;Siedner MJ;White RG;Herbst K;Grant AD;Harling G
南非实施了迅速和严格的物理距离规定，以尽量减少SARS-CoV-2疫情的传播。关于这些措施对农村和低收入环境中人际接触的影响的证据有限。我们比较了2019年一次和2020年年中两次在同一个农村夸祖鲁-纳塔尔地区进行的人口代表性社会接触调查。受访者报告了超过24小时的身体和对话（“密切互动”）接触的特征。我们建立了年龄混合矩阵，并估计了SARS-CoV-2繁殖数（R 0）的比例变化。受访者还报告了在访问过的地点和使用过的交通工具中的其他人的数量，从中我们评估了由于共享室内空间（“共享空气”）而导致的潜在空气传播感染暴露的变化。2019年3月至12月的受访者（n = 1704）报告了平均7.4次密切互动接触和196次家庭以外的共享空中人小时。2020年6月至7月，随着疫情在当地达到高峰，受访者（n = 216）报告了4.1名密切互动接触者和21名在家外共享空气人时，在他人家中和公共场所的人数明显下降。50岁以上的成年人与其他50岁以上的人的密切接触较少，但与15-29奥尔兹的接触变化不大，反映了多代家庭内的持续接触。我们估计，在2019年至2020年6月至7月期间，潜在R 0下降了42%（95%合理范围为14-59%）。在南非农村实施新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19，即2019冠状病毒病）隔离规定后，家庭外的社交接触大幅减少。几代人之间家庭的持续接触突出表明，保持社交距离措施在保护老年人方面可能存在局限性。在线版本包含补充材料，可通过10.1186/s12879-021-06604-8获得。
South Africa implemented rapid and strict physical distancing regulations to minimize SARS-CoV-2 epidemic spread. Evidence on the impact of such measures on interpersonal contact in rural and lower-income settings is limited. We compared population-representative social contact surveys conducted in the same rural KwaZulu-Natal location once in 2019 and twice in mid-2020. Respondents reported characteristics of physical and conversational (‘close interaction’) contacts over 24 hours. We built age-mixing matrices and estimated the proportional change in the SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number (R0). Respondents also reported counts of others present at locations visited and transport used, from which we evaluated change in potential exposure to airborne infection due to shared indoor space (‘shared air’). Respondents in March–December 2019 (n = 1704) reported a mean of 7.4 close interaction contacts and 196 shared air person-hours beyond their homes. Respondents in June-July 2020 (n = 216), as the epidemic peaked locally, reported 4.1 close interaction contacts and 21 shared air person-hours outside their home, with significant declines in others’ homes and public spaces. Adults aged over 50 had fewer close contacts with others over 50, but little change in contact with 15–29 year olds, reflecting ongoing contact within multigenerational households. We estimate potential R0 fell by 42% (95% plausible range 14–59%) between 2019 and June-July 2020. Extra-household social contact fell substantially following imposition of Covid-19 distancing regulations in rural South Africa. Ongoing contact within intergenerational households highlighted a potential limitation of social distancing measures in protecting older adults. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06604-8.
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影响因子：
8.1
作者：
Kielmann, Karina;Karat, Aaron S.;Grant, Alison D.
通讯作者：
Grant, Alison D.
影响因子：
5
作者：
Dodd PJ;Looker C;Plumb ID;Bond V;Schaap A;Shanaube K;Muyoyeta M;Vynnycky E;Godfrey-Faussett P;Corbett EL;Beyers N;Ayles H;White RG
通讯作者：
White RG
影响因子：
8.5
作者：
Harling G;Gómez-Olivé FX;Tlouyamma J;Mutevedzi T;Kabudula CW;Mahlako R;Singh U;Ohene-Kwofie D;Buckland R;Ndagurwa P;Gareta D;Gunda R;Mngomezulu T;Nxumalo S;Wong EB;Kahn K;Siedner MJ;Maimela E;Tollman S;Collinson M;Herbst K
通讯作者：
Herbst K
影响因子：
9.3
作者：
Quaife M;van Zandvoort K;Gimma A;Shah K;McCreesh N;Prem K;Barasa E;Mwanga D;Kangwana B;Pinchoff J;CMMID COVID-19 Working Group;Edmunds WJ;Jarvis CI;Austrian K
通讯作者：
Austrian K
十个科学原因支持SARS-COV-2的机载传播。
DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(21)00869-2
发表时间：
2021-05-01
期刊：
Lancet (London, England)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Greenhalgh T;Jimenez JL;Prather KA;Tufekci Z;Fisman D;Schooley R
通讯作者：
Schooley R