The peak structure and future changes of the relationships between extreme precipitation and temperature
The peak structure and future changes of the relationships between extreme precipitation and temperature
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极端降水与气温关系的峰值结构及未来变化
DOI：
10.1038/nclimate3239
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发表时间：
2017-04-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Parr, Dana T.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang, Guiling;Wang, Dagang;Parr, Dana T.
理论模型预测，在没有水分限制的情况下，极端降水强度会随温度呈指数增长，其速度由Clausius-Clapeyron （C-C）关系决定（1,2）。气候模式预估21世纪全球大部分地区极端降水持续增加（3-5）。然而，一些台站观测显示极端降水与极高温度呈负标度（6-9），这引起了人们对未来极端降水增加的怀疑。在这里，我们展示了当今全球大部分地区的气候，与当地温度相关的日极端降水曲线具有峰值结构，在温度变化的中低温范围内如预期的那样增加，但在高温范围内减少。然而，这种峰形关系并不意味着未来极端降水的潜在上限。气候模式预估的极端降水峰值和峰值温度（t峰）都将随着变暖而增加；这两种上升趋势总体上符合中高纬度地区的C-C尺度变化速率和大部分热带地区的超级C-C尺度变化速率。由于预估的当地平均温度（T-mean）的增加远远超过预估的陆地上T-peak的增加，将极端降水与T-mean联系起来的传统方法产生了误导性的亚c - c标度率。
Theoretical models predict that, in the absence of moisture limitation, extreme precipitation intensity could exponentially increase with temperatures at a rate determined by the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relationship(1,2). Climate models project a continuous increase of precipitation extremes for the twenty-first century over most of the globe(3-5). However, some station observations suggest a negative scaling of extreme precipitation with very high temperatures(6-9), raising doubts about future increase of precipitation extremes. Here we show for the present-day climate over most of the globe, the curve relating daily precipitation extremes with local temperatures has a peak structure, increasing as expected at the low-medium range of temperature variations but decreasing at high temperatures. However, this peak-shaped relationship does not imply a potential upper limit for future precipitation extremes. Climate models project both the peak of extreme precipitation and the temperature at which it peaks (T-peak) will increase with warming; the two increases generally conform to the C-C scaling rate in mid-and high-latitudes, and to a super C-C scaling in most of the tropics. Because projected increases of local mean temperature (T-mean) far exceed projected increases of T-peak over land, the conventional approach of relating extreme precipitation to Tmean produces a misleading sub-C-C scaling rate.