Predictors of Driving Outcomes in Advancing Age
Predictors of Driving Outcomes in Advancing Age
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DOI：
10.1037/a0026359
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发表时间：
2012-09-01
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Rizzo, Matthew
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Emerson, Jamie L.;Johnson, Amy M.;Rizzo, Matthew
这项研究旨在开发老年驾驶员现实生活中驾驶结果的预测模型。对 100 名老年驾驶员（年龄 65-89 岁 [72.7]）进行了人口统计、驾驶历史、道路驾驶错误以及基线视觉、运动和神经心理学测试分数表现的评估。这些变量用于预测停止驾驶、首次行驶违规或碰撞的时间。使用Cox比例风险回归模型，停止驾驶的显着个体预测因素是年龄较大和近视敏度、对比敏感度、有用视野、线方向判断、轨迹制作测试A部分、本顿视觉保留测试、凹槽钉板和整体认知能力综合指数的较差分数。更高的每周行驶里程、更高的教育程度和“严重”的道路错误预示着行驶违规。越野测试 B 部分或越野测试 (B-A) 的较低分数以及严重的道路错误预示着会发生碰撞。使用“越野”预测因素的多变量模型显示：(a) 年龄和对比敏感度是停止驾驶的最佳预测因素； (b) 教育、每周行驶里程和听觉言语学习任务-回忆移动违规行为； (c) 教育程度、过去一年的车祸次数、听觉言语学习任务回忆以及车祸追踪测试 (B-A)。通过标准化越野测试，可以轻松、无创地监测老年驾驶员的视觉、运动和认知能力下降，并且即使在没有神经系统疾病的情况下，这些措施的表现也可以预测参与机动车碰撞和停止驾驶。
This study aimed to develop predictive models for real-life driving outcomes in older drivers. Demographics, driving history, on-road driving errors, and performance on visual, motor, and neuropsychological test scores at baseline were assessed in 100 older drivers (ages 65-89 years [72.7]). These variables were used to predict time to driving cessation, first moving violation, or crash. Using Cox proportional hazards regression models, significant individual predictors for driving cessation were greater age and poorer scores on Near Visual Acuity, Contrast Sensitivity, Useful Field of View, Judgment of Line Orientation, Trail Making Test-Part A, Benton Visual Retention Test, Grooved Pegboard, and a composite index of overall cognitive ability. Greater weekly mileage, higher education, and "serious" on-road errors predicted moving violations. Poorer scores from Trail Making Test-Part B or Trail Making Test (B-A) and serious on-road errors predicted crashes. Multivariate models using "off-road" predictors revealed (a) age and Contrast Sensitivity as best predictors for driving cessation; (b) education, weekly mileage, and Auditory Verbal Learning Task-Recall for moving violations; and (c) education, number of crashes over the past year, Auditory Verbal Learning Task-Recall, and Trail Making Test (B-A) for crashes. Diminished visual, motor, and cognitive abilities in older drivers can be easily and noninvasively monitored with standardized off-road tests, and performances on these measures predict involvement in motor vehicle crashes and driving cessation, even in the absence of a neurological disorder.