The use of periodic matrices to model the population dynamics of the long-lived semelparous Furcraea parmentieri (Asparagaceae) in a temperate forest in central Mexico
The use of periodic matrices to model the population dynamics of the long-lived semelparous Furcraea parmentieri (Asparagaceae) in a temperate forest in central Mexico
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DOI：
10.1007/s10144-017-0572-7
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发表时间：
2017-01-01
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Valverde, Teresa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hernandez-Pedrero, Roman;Valverde, Teresa
小叶芙蓉(Roezl Ex Ortgie)Garcia-Mend.是一种长寿的半生性受威胁物种，地理分布有限。我们使用周期矩阵研究了该物种在墨西哥城西南部的人口学。我们跟踪了404只个体(2006-2007年)的命运，并在田间(2007-2008年)进行了种子萌发和成苗试验，根据株高估计了8个大小类别个体的存活、生长和繁殖概率。种群结构的特点是幼树数量较多，以及中型和大型植株。我们建立了三个描述种群周期不同阶段的人口学特征的年度矩阵：以低繁殖力和低成虫死亡率为特征的常规年(RG)；以出苗率低和成虫死亡率高(与半产有关)为特征的肥大播种年(MS)；以及肥大播种后(PS)苗木和珠芽出苗率高的年份(PS)。周期矩阵的构建模拟了三种情景，包括每5年、10年或15年发生一次的桅杆播种事件。有限种群增长率(Lambda)为1.03(RG年)、0.99(MS年)和1.25(PS年)。90年期间(按年度估计)预测的长期人口增长率值随着桅杆播种事件频率的增加而更高。我们估计，个体的生殖年龄在60-90岁之间，大多数新兵是通过有性繁殖起源的。尽管人口有增长的潜力，但由于土地利用的变化，其可持续性可能会受到威胁。
Furcraea parmentieri (Roezl ex Ortgies) Garcia-Mend. is a long-lived, semelparous threatened species with a restricted geographic distribution. We studied the demography of this species in southwest of Mexico City using periodic matrices. We followed the fate of 404 individuals (in 2006-2007) and performed seed germination and seedling establishment experiments in the field (in 2007-2008) to estimate survival, growth and reproduction probabilities of individuals in eight size categories, according to plant height. Population structure was characterized by a high number of saplings, as well as medium and large plants. We built three annual matrices that described the demography in different phases of the population cycle: regular years (RG) characterized by low fecundity and low adult mortality; mast-seeding years (MS) with low seedling emergence and high adult mortality (related to semelparity); and post mast-seeding years (PS) with a high emergence of seedlings and bulbils. Periodic matrices were built simulating three scenarios, which consisted of mast-seeding events occurring every 5, 10, or 15 years. Finite population growth rates (lambda) were 1.03 (RG year), 0.99 (MS year), and 1.25 (PS year). The long term population growth rate values projected over a 90 year period (estimated on an annual basis) were higher as the frequency of mast-seeding events increased. We estimated that individuals reproduce at an age of 60-90 years and that most new recruits originate via sexual reproduction. Although the population has a potential for growth, its persistence may be threatened due to land use change.