TOTAL ERROR IN PES ESTIMATES OF POPULATION
TOTAL ERROR IN PES ESTIMATES OF POPULATION
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DOI：
10.2307/2290495
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发表时间：
1991-12-01
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
SPENCER, BD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
MULRY, MH;SPENCER, BD
我们描述了一种方法，用于估计人口的双系统估计（DSE）的准确性，人口普查估计的人口，和估计的人口普查中的漏报。DSE基于人口普查和查点后调查（PES）。我们将该方法应用于1988年圣路易斯和密苏里州中东部人口普查的彩排，并讨论其对1990年人口普查和PES的适用性。该方法是基于总（或净）误差分解成组件，如抽样误差，匹配误差和其他非抽样误差。有限的信息准确性的某些组成部分的错误，特别是失败的假设在“捕获-再捕获”模型，但其他人以及，导致我们提供初步估计的错误的人口普查，DSE，和低估估计1988年。预计1990年的估计数会有所改善。
We describe a methodology for estimating the accuracy of dual systems estimates (DSE's) of population, census estimates of population, and estimates of undercount in the census. The DSE's are based on the census and a post-enumeration survey (PES). We apply the methodology to the 1988 dress rehearsal census of St. Louis and east-central Missouri and we discuss its applicability to the 1990 census and PES. The methodology is based on decompositions of the total (or net) error into components, such as sampling error, matching error, and other nonsampling errors. Limited information about the accuracy of certain components of error, notably failure of assumptions in the "capture-recapture" model, but others as well, lead us to offer tentative estimates of the errors of the census, DSE, and undercount estimates for 1988. Improved estimates are anticipated for 1990.