Probability-interval hybrid uncertainty analysis for structures with both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties: a review
Probability-interval hybrid uncertainty analysis for structures with both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties: a review
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随机和认知不确定性结构的概率-区间混合不确定性分析
DOI：
10.1007/s00158-017-1864-4
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发表时间：
2017-11
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
C. Jiang;J. Zheng;X. Han-
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Jiang;J. Zheng;X. Han-
传统的结构不确定性分析主要基于概率模型，需要利用大量的实验样本建立精确的参数概率分布函数。在许多实际工程问题中，一些参数的概率分布可以通过足够的样本来确定，而对于某些参数，由于样本的缺乏或质量较差，只能得到它们的变化区间，或者根据已有的数据确定它们的概率分布类型，而一些分布参数，如均值和标准差，只能给出区间估计。这就构成了一类重要的概率-区间混合不确定性问题，其中既存在不确定性，又存在认知不确定性。概率-区间混合不确定性分析为许多复杂结构的可靠性分析和设计提供了重要手段，近几十年来已成为结构不确定性分析领域的研究热点之一。本文综述了该领域的四个主要研究方向，即不确定性建模、不确定性传播分析、结构可靠性分析和基于可靠性的设计优化。总结了存在的主要科学问题、技术难点以及每个方向的研究现状。在此基础上，对概率-区间混合不确定性分析的未来研究进行了展望。
Traditional structural uncertainty analysis is mainly based on probability models and requires the establishment of accurate parametric probability distribution functions using large numbers of experimental samples. In many actual engineering problems, the probability distributions of some parameters can be established due to sufficient samples available, whereas for some parameters, due to the lack or poor quality of samples, only their variation intervals can be obtained, or their probability distribution types can be determined based on the existing data while some of the distribution parameters such as mean and standard deviation can only be given interval estimations. This thus will constitute an important type of probability-interval hybrid uncertain problem, in which the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties both exist. The probability-interval hybrid uncertainty analysis provides an important mean for reliability analysis and design of many complex structures, and has become one of the research focuses in the field of structural uncertainty analysis over the past decades. This paper reviews the four main research directions in this area, i.e., uncertainty modeling, uncertainty propagation analysis, structural reliability analysis, and reliability-based design optimization. It summarizes the main scientific problems, technical difficulties, and current research status of each direction. Based on the review, this paper also provides an outlook for future research in probability-interval hybrid uncertainty analysis.