Simulation based multiple disturbances evaluation in the precast supply chain for improved disturbance prevention
Simulation based multiple disturbances evaluation in the precast supply chain for improved disturbance prevention
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.12.188
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发表时间：
2018-03
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Zhaojing Wang;Hao Hu;J. Gong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Zhaojing Wang;Hao Hu;J. Gong
在预制供应链中，干扰是不可避免的，而且无处不在。对个别骚乱的影响进行系统评估，以确定预防各种骚乱的优先次序，对于充分发挥后勤利润的潜力至关重要。在防止骚乱预算不足的情况下，情况尤其如此。然而，现有的研究主要集中在单项干扰分析或预防措施评估上。本研究提出一种整体扰动评估模型来评估预制供应链的不确定性。该模型采用基于ARENA的离散事件仿真方法开发，旨在解决在实施防范措施前缺乏系统性多扰动评估的问题。该模型构建了一个现实世界的预制供应链环境，该环境考虑了来自供应商、制造商、物流和客户的四类干扰。在该模型中，从运营和经济两个角度对干扰的重要性进行了评估，并给出了每种预防措施的实施成本上限。最后，对11个不同扰动水平的场景进行了仿真研究，验证了该方法的有效性。计算结果表明，在该预制供应链中，系统故障是最重要的干扰因素，其次是PC质量问题、因维修故障导致的PC再生产问题、以及材料质量问题。研究结果可为预制供应链中的多重干扰管理提供参考。
Disturbances are inevitable and ubiquitous in the precast supply chain. Systematic evaluations of the impact of individual disturbances to prioritize the prevention of various disturbances are critical for realizing the full potential of logistical profits. This is especially true when the disturbance prevention budget is insufficient. Whereas, existing studies focused primarily on single disturbance analyses or precautions evaluation. This study proposes an overall disturbance evaluation model to assess the uncertainty of precast supply chain. The model is developed using ARENA-based discrete event simulation methods, and aims to address the lack of systematic multiple disturbances evaluation before the implementation of precaution measures. The model constructs include a real-world precast supply chain environment which considers four categories of disturbances derived from suppliers, manufacturers, logistics, and customers. In the model, the importance of disturbance is evaluated from both operational and economic perspectives, and the upper bound for the implementation cost of each precaution measure is provided. Finally, eleven scenarios with different levels of exposure to disturbances are investigated to test the validity of the proposed approach. Numerical results indicate that system failure is the most critical disturbance in this precast supply chain, followed by PC quality problem, PC reproduction owing to repair failure, and the material quality problem. The findings could facilitate the multiple disturbance management in the precast supply chain.