Record warming at the South Pole during the past three decades
Record warming at the South Pole during the past three decades
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-020-0815-z
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发表时间：
2020-06-29
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Renwick, James A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Clem, Kyle R.;Fogt, Ryan L.;Renwick, James A.
在过去的三十年里，南极经历了每十年0.61 +/- 0.34摄氏度的创纪录的统计显著变暖，是全球平均水平的三倍多。在这里，我们使用一个气候模型实验的合奏，以显示这种最近的变暖是在自然变率的模拟范围的上限。暖化是由于热带太平洋西部海面温度上升导致威德尔海出现强烈的气旋异常。这一环流，加上南方环状模的正极性，将温暖和潮湿的空气从南大西洋平流进入南极内陆。这些结果强调了南极内陆气候与热带气候变化的密切联系。此外，这项研究表明，大气内部变率可以引起极端的区域气候变化在南极内陆，这掩盖了任何人为变暖的信号在那里在21世纪。在南极的表面空气温度变暖超过三倍的全球速率在最近几十年。研究表明，这一趋势是由热带地区远程驱动的，而南方环形模态的正相位则在本地驱动，增加了人为变暖之上的暖湿空气的流入。
Over the last three decades, the South Pole has experienced a record-high statistically significant warming of 0.61 +/- 0.34 degrees C per decade, more than three times the global average. Here, we use an ensemble of climate model experiments to show this recent warming lies within the upper bounds of the simulated range of natural variability. The warming resulted from a strong cyclonic anomaly in the Weddell Sea caused by increasing sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Pacific. This circulation, coupled with a positive polarity of the Southern Annular Mode, advected warm and moist air from the South Atlantic into the Antarctic interior. These results underscore the intimate linkage of interior Antarctic climate to tropical variability. Further, this study shows that atmospheric internal variability can induce extreme regional climate change over the Antarctic interior, which has masked any anthropogenic warming signal there during the twenty-first century.Surface air temperatures at the South Pole warmed at over three times the global rate in recent decades. Research shows this trend was driven remotely by the tropics and locally by a positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode, increasing the influx of warm moist air atop anthropogenic warming.