Predicting the spread of feral populations of the American mink in Italy: is it too late for eradication?
Predicting the spread of feral populations of the American mink in Italy: is it too late for eradication?
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DOI：
10.1007/s10530-012-0200-6
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发表时间：
2012-09-01
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Bonesi, L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Iordan, F.;Rushton, S. P.;Bonesi, L.
预测外来物种传播的速度和方向是模型有助于管理入侵的方法之一。在意大利，美洲水貂是一种外来入侵物种，生活在野生种群中，其分布和影响鲜为人知。这项研究的目的是预测美国水貂在意大利的可能分布以及种群扩散的速度。利用扩展的空间显性种群动态模型（SEPM）模拟了意大利水貂在20年间的扩张。我们将当前和最近水貂养殖场的分布作为入侵的初始点，并通过两种方式验证模型：(1)将预测分布与意大利已知水貂种群的分布进行比较；(2)将预测的传播率与实际人群中观察到的传播率进行比较。该模型在意大利景观中的应用强调了貂在该国已经广泛存在的可能性，尽管只有很少的关于该物种的报道。考虑到水貂已被证明是其他地方的破坏性入侵，这是一个严重的保护问题。然而，这个物种应该主要局限于意大利东北部的事实表明，根除仍然是可能的。这项研究强调了美国水貂带来的风险，并表明建模通常比实地研究便宜，可以用来指导调查和未来对外来入侵的管理。
Predicting the speed and direction of the spread of alien species is one of the ways in which models can contribute to managing invasions. In Italy, the American mink is an alien invasive living in feral populations whose distribution and impacts are little known. The aim of this study was to predict the likely distribution of the American mink across Italy and the rate of population spread. An extended spatially explicit population dynamics model (SEPM) was used to simulate mink expansion in Italy across a period of 20 years. We used the current and recent distribution of mink farms as the initial points of invasion and validated the model in two ways: (1) by comparing the predicted distribution with the distribution of known populations of mink in Italy; (2) by comparing the predicted rates of spread with those observed in real populations. The application of the model to the Italian landscape highlighted the possibility that mink are already widespread in the country even though only few reports of this species have ever been made. This is of serious conservation concern considering that mink has proven to be a damaging invasive elsewhere. However, the fact that this species should mostly be restricted to north-east Italy suggests that eradication may still be possible. This study highlights the risks posed by American mink and shows that modelling, which is generally less expensive than field studies, can be used to guide surveys and future management of alien invasives.