Turkish budget deficit sustainability and the revenue-expenditure nexus
Turkish budget deficit sustainability and the revenue-expenditure nexus
复制标题
土耳其预算赤字的可持续性和收入与支出的关系
DOI：
10.1080/00036840600749904
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Murat Çak
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Payne;H. Mohammadi;Murat Çak
利用1968年至2004年的年度数据，研究了土耳其预算赤字的可持续性以及政府收入和支出在控制赤字规模方面的动态。研究结果表明，一旦考虑到未知的结构性断裂，政府收入和支出之间存在长期关系。然而，斜率参数的大小明显小于1，这表明政府在为其未来债务融资方面可能面临困难。在收入-支出关系方面，通过支出方程中的误差修正项，实证证据有利于税收-支出假设。最后，在预算调整过程的阈值自回归或动量阈值自回归规范中，没有证据表明调整过程中存在不对称。
The sustainability of the Turkish budget deficits as well as the dynamics of government revenues and expenditures in controlling the size of the deficit is examined using annual data from 1968 to 2004. The findings support the existence of a long-run relation between government revenues and expenditures once allowance is made for an unknown structural break. However, the size of the slope parameter is significantly less than one, suggesting that the government might face difficulties in financing its future debt. With respect to the revenue-expenditure nexus, the empirical evidence is favourable to the tax-spend hypothesis through the error correction term in the expenditures equation. Finally, there is no evidence of asymmetries in the adjustment process in either the threshhold autoregressive or momentum threshold autoregressive specifications of the budgetary adjustment process.