The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak
The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak
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DOI：
10.1126/science.aba9757
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发表时间：
2020-04-24
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Vespignani, Alessandro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chinazzi, Matteo;Davis, Jessica T.;Vespignani, Alessandro
鉴于2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）在中国大陆的快速传播，我们使用全球集合人群疾病传播模型来预测旅行限制对疫情在国内和国际传播的影响。该模型是根据国际报告的病例进行校准的，并显示，在2020年1月23日武汉开始实施旅行禁令时，大多数中国城市已经接待了许多受感染的旅行者。武汉的旅行隔离仅使中国大陆的总体疫情进展推迟了3至5天，但在国际范围内产生了更显著的影响，截至2月中旬，病例输入减少了近80%。模拟结果还表明，除非社区传播减少50%或更高，否则持续90%的往返中国大陆的旅行限制只能适度影响疫情轨迹。
Motivated by the rapid spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in mainland China, we use a global metapopulation disease transmission model to project the impact of travel limitations on the national and international spread of the epidemic. The model is calibrated on the basis of internationally reported cases and shows that, at the start of the travel ban from Wuhan on 23 January 2020, most Chinese cities had already received many infected travelers. The travel quarantine of Wuhan delayed the overall epidemic progression by only 3 to 5 days in mainland China but had a more marked effect on the international scale, where case importations were reduced by nearly 80% until mid-February. Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.