A conceptual framework for multi-regional climate change assessments for international market systems with long-term investments
A conceptual framework for multi-regional climate change assessments for international market systems with long-term investments
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-009-9781-1
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发表时间：
2010-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
J. Winkler;S. Thornsbury;Marco Artavia;F. Chmielewski;D. Kirschke;Sangjun Lee;Malgorzata Liszewska;S. Loveridge;Pang-Ning Tan;S. Zhong;J. Andresen;Roy R. Black;R. Kurlus;Denys Nizalov;N. Olynk;Z. Ustrnul;C. Zavalloni;J. M. Bisanz;G. Bujdosó;Lesley A. Fusina;Yvonne Henniges;P. Hilsendegen;K. Lar;Lukasz Malarzewski;Lukasz Malarzewski;Thordis Moeller;Roman Murmylo;T. Niedźwiedź;T. Niedźwiedź;O. Nizalova;H. Prawiranata;N. Rothwell;J. V. Ravensway;H. Witzke;M. Woods
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作者：
J. Winkler;S. Thornsbury;Marco Artavia;F. Chmielewski;D. Kirschke;Sangjun Lee;Malgorzata Liszewska;S. Loveridge;Pang-Ning Tan;S. Zhong;J. Andresen;Roy R. Black;R. Kurlus;Denys Nizalov;N. Olynk;Z. Ustrnul;C. Zavalloni;J. M. Bisanz;G. Bujdosó;Lesley A. Fusina;Yvonne Henniges;P. Hilsendegen;K. Lar;Lukasz Malarzewski;Lukasz Malarzewski;Thordis Moeller;Roman Murmylo;T. Niedźwiedź;T. Niedźwiedź;O. Nizalova;H. Prawiranata;N. Rothwell;J. V. Ravensway;H. Witzke;M. Woods
提出了对涉及长期投资的国际市场体系进行气候变化评估的概念框架。该框架是动态和静态建模的混合体。动态建模用于那些时间上连续建模是可能的系统组件，而固定时间片用于其他系统组件，其中可以假设基本假设在时间片内保持恒定，但允许在片之间变化。该框架的一个重要组成部分是评估由气候、生产、贸易和决策模型的一系列相互关联的结构不确定性引起的“元不确定性”。提出这一框架的动力是缺乏对具有多个生产区域和长期资本投资的市场体系的全行业评估，这些市场体系易受气候变化和变化，特别是极端气候的影响。建议的框架是务实的，避免了听话的理想。即便如此，预计将面临许多实施挑战，并使用示例行业进行说明。概念框架是作为进一步讨论国际市场体系气候变化影响、脆弱性和适应评估的战略和办法的出发点提出的。
A conceptual framework for climate change assessments of international market systems that involve long-term investments is proposed. The framework is a hybrid of dynamic and static modeling. Dynamic modeling is used for those system components for which temporally continuous modeling is possible, while fixed time slices are used for other system components where it can be assumed that underlying assumptions are held constant within the time slices but allowed to vary between slices. An important component of the framework is the assessment of the “metauncertainty” arising from the structural uncertainties of a linked sequence of climate, production, trade and decision-making models. The impetus for proposing the framework is the paucity of industry-wide assessments for market systems with multiple production regions and long-term capital investments that are vulnerable to climate variations and change, especially climate extremes. The proposed framework is pragmatic, eschewing the ideal for the tractable. Even so, numerous implementation challenges are expected, which are illustrated using an example industry. The conceptual framework is offered as a starting point for further discussions of strategies and approaches for climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments for international market systems.