Neither acceptable nor certain - cold war antics for 21st century precautionary culture
Neither acceptable nor certain - cold war antics for 21st century precautionary culture
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既不可接受也不确定——21世纪预防文化的冷战滑稽动作
作者：
J. Hanekamp
预防被认为是应对不确定性的典型方法。无论是作为一种激进的预防形式提出，还是像最近提出的那样作为一种创新的规范程序来处理推进人类活动中的不确定性，它都源于处理潜在核战争的不确定性的冷战研究。赫尔曼·卡恩（Herman Kahn）和罗马俱乐部在其第一份报告《增长的极限》（The Limits to Growth）中的工作被证明是理解当前21世纪关于预防措施的讨论的典范。在关于预防的讨论中特别出现了两个主题，其中包括两个例子：从确保客观知识的科学目标（我们将在适当的时候详细说明）向可接受性和管理不确定性的紧迫性的转变。这两个主题是密切相关的。在最后的分析中，我们将看到，可接受性和对不确定性的管理分别都是不可接受的或可实现的。预防措施在其被认为起作用的范围内不会产生任何结果。
Precaution is regarded as the paradigmatic approach to uncertainty. Either proposed as a form of radical prevention or, as put forward recently, as an innovative normative procedure to handle uncertainties in advancing human activities, it nevertheless finds its source in Cold War research dealing with the uncertainties of a potential nuclear war. The work of Herman Kahn and the Club of Rome in its first report The Limits to Growth are shown to be exemplary in understanding the present 21st century discussion on precaution. Two themes specifically emerge in the discussion about precaution, which includes two examples: the shift from the scientific aim of securing objective knowledge (which we will specify in due course) towards acceptability and the exigency to manage uncertainty. Both themes are closely related. In the final analysis we will see that neither acceptability nor the management of uncertainty, respectively, is acceptable or attainable. Precaution will render nothing within the confines within which it is regarded to function.