Election Forecasting: Principles and Practice
Election Forecasting: Principles and Practice
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选举预测：原理与实践
DOI：
10.1111/j.1467-856x.2005.00178.x
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发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
M. Lewis
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Lewis
预测选举意味着在选举发生之前宣布选举结果。选举预测的科学方法包括民意调查、政治股票市场和统计模型。我回顾了这些方法，重点放在最后一个，因为它提供了更多的准备时间。考虑到选举的统计预测模型的历史和政治。提供了评估这些模型的规则。实际模型的例子来自美国、法国和联合王国，在那里这项工作是相当新的。与其他方法相比，统计建模似乎是预测选举的一种有前途的方法。
To forecast an election means to declare the outcome before it happens. Scientific approaches to election forecasting include polls, political stock markets and statistical models. I review these approaches, with an emphasis on the last, since it offers more lead time. Consideration is given to the history and politics of statistical forecasting models of elections. Rules for evaluating such models are offered. Examples of actual models come from the United States, France and the United Kingdom, where this work is rather new. Compared to other approaches, statistical modelling seems a promising method for forecasting elections.