A simple interpretation of the growth of scientific/technological research impact leading to hype-type evolution curves
A simple interpretation of the growth of scientific/technological research impact leading to hype-type evolution curves
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DOI：
10.1007/s11192-015-1533-6
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发表时间：
2015-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Vaglio, Ruggero
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Campani, Marco;Vaglio, Ruggero
Gartner“炒作曲线”的实证和理论论证是技术生命周期分析领域中一个非常相关的开放性问题。本文件的范围是介绍一个简单的模型，描述科学/技术研究的影响，在特定的情况下，科学是一个新的想法，推动技术发展的主要来源，导致“炒作型”的演变曲线的增长。该模型的主要思想是，在第一阶段，一个新的特定领域的科学兴趣的增长（可以通过出版数量来衡量）基本上遵循经典的“逻辑”增长曲线。在第二阶段，从较晚的触发时间开始，基于该科学思想的技术发展（可以通过专利保藏来衡量）可以被描述为第一条曲线的积分（在数学意义上），因为技术是基于总体积累的科学知识。通过对有机发光二极管科研与技术的论文发表率和专利存款率的文献计量分析，对该模型进行了初步检验。
The empirical and theoretical justification of Gartner "hype curves" is a very relevant open question in the field of Technological Life Cycle analysis. The scope of the present paper is to introduce a simple model describing the growth of scientific/technological research impact, in the specific case where science is the main source of a new idea driving a technological development, leading to "hype-type" evolution curves. The main idea of the model is that, in a first stage, the growth of the scientific interest of a new specific field (as can be measured by publication numbers) basically follows the classical "logistic" growth curve. At a second stage, starting at a later trigger time, the technological development based on that scientific idea (as can be measured by patent deposits) can be described as the integral (in a mathematical sense) of the first curve, since technology is based on the overall accumulated scientific knowledge. The model is preliminary tested through a bibliometric analysis of the publication and patent deposit rate for organic light emitting diodes scientific research and technology.