A climate-sensitive aboveground biomass model for three larch species in northeastern and northern China
A climate-sensitive aboveground biomass model for three larch species in northeastern and northern China
复制标题
中国东北和华北地区三种落叶松的气候敏感地上生物量模型
DOI：
10.1007/s00468-016-1490-6
复制
发表时间：
2017-04-01
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Wang, Guangxing
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fu, Liyong;Sun, Wei;Wang, Guangxing
关键信息气候敏感的地上生物量模型，结合非线性混合效应模型和虚拟变量的方法，导致更高的预测精度比没有气候变量的生物量为3个物种Abstract作为乡土树种，广泛分布在中国东北和北方，落叶松林在维持森林生态系统功能和减缓大气中的碳浓度的关键作用。然而，落叶松种的生长和地上生物量（AGB）对气候变化的空间敏感性尚不清楚。采用非线性混合效应模型和虚拟变量方法，建立了一个气候敏感的落叶松AGB模型，并对落叶松（Larix gmelinii（Rupr.）Kuzen.），朝鲜落叶松（Larix olgensisHenry.）和Prince Rupprecht larch（Larix principis rupprechtiiMayr.）中国东北和北方的气候变化。对东北和北方5个次级气候带（中温湿润气候带、中温半湿润气候带、中温半干旱气候带、冷温湿润气候带和暖温半湿润气候带）256株落叶松的AGB值进行了测定。结果表明，生长季温度、生长季总降水量的长期平均值以及最湿润区的平均温度和降水量对AGB有显著影响（α= 0.05）。该模型的预测精度远高于人口平均水平模型及其基础模型。生长季降水过多和平均气温高使落叶松AGB值增大，而降水量大和最湿润区平均气温高则使AGB值减小。中温半干旱气候带的落叶松种的AGB值最大，表明该气候带的气候条件比其它4个次级气候带更为有利。预计这项研究的结果可以与适应性管理的知识相结合，以减少与森林管理决策有关的风险和不确定性。
Key messageA climate-sensitive aboveground biomass model developed by combining a nonlinear mixed-effects model and dummy variable approach led to higher prediction accuracy of biomass than those without climatic variables for three larch species.AbstractAs native species and being widely distributed in northeastern and northern China, larch forests play a pivotal role in maintaining forest ecosystem functions and mitigation of carbon concentration at the atmosphere. However, the spatial sensitivity of growing and aboveground biomass (AGB) of larch species to climate change is not known. In this study, a climate-sensitive AGB model was developed by combining nonlinear mixed-effects modeling and a dummy variable approach to account for the spatial sensitivity of AGB of three larch species including Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii(Rupr.) Kuzen.), Korean larch (Larix olgensisHenry.) and Prince Rupprecht larch (Larix principis rupprechtiiMayr.) to climate change in northeastern and northern China. We examined the AGB values of 256 larch trees growing in five secondary climate zones: mid-temperature humid climatic zone, mid-temperature sub-humid climatic zone, mid-temperature semi-arid climatic zone, cool temperature humid climatic zone and warm temperature sub-humid climatic zone in northeastern and northern China. The results showed that the long-term averages of growing season temperature and total growing season precipitation, and the mean temperature and precipitation of wettest quarter, had significant (α= 0.05) effects on AGB. The prediction accuracy of the developed model was much higher than that of the model at the population average level and its base model. Excessive rain and high mean temperature during the growing season increased the AGB values of larch trees, while abundant precipitation and high mean temperature in the wettest quarter led to the decrease of AGB. The AGB of the larch species from the mid-temperature semi-arid climatic zone had the greatest values, which indicated that climate conditions were more favorable in this zone than in the other four secondary climate zones. It is expected that the findings from this study can be combined with the knowledge of adaptive management to reduce the risks and uncertainties associated with forest management decisions.